A test for Netanyahu and Sinwar

They have both prioritized political advantage over their people. The ceasefire to deliver polio vaccines may prove the more strategic move is to save lives, rather than sacrifice them

In the midst of relentless violence, a new threat has emerged in Gaza—one that doesn’t come from bombs or bullets but from a disease the world thought was nearly eradicated. For the first time in 25 years, a case of the highly infectious polio virus, recently detected in Gaza’s sewage, has been confirmed. A 10-month-old baby is now paralyzed in one leg, the victim of an outbreak that aid groups have been warning about for months. The deteriorating sanitation and lack of clean water, the direct result of destroyed infrastructure and water treatment plants, have created the perfect storm for such a disaster.

Why should we be surprised? When a population is under siege and its healthcare system is in shambles, outbreaks of preventable diseases become almost inevitable. The World Health Organization, along with international aid agencies, has scrambled to deliver over 1.6 million doses of the polio vaccine to Gaza. But the situation is so dire that even this ambitious vaccination campaign might be too little, too late. Israel and Hamas have agreed to three temporary ceasefires to facilitate the distribution of the vaccine—a rare pause in a conflict that seems to have no end.

The most vulnerable are Gazan babies who have not completed their necessary vaccinations due to the collapse of the healthcare system or simply because they are too young. They are innocent, caught in the perilous circumstances of their birth.

But if this disease spreads, the consequences will extend far beyond the borders of Gaza. As this recent Foreign Policy piece pointed out, the threat isn’t just to Palestinians but also to Israelis, especially infants, soldiers deployed in Gaza, and the remaining hostages still being held captive by Hamas. Polio does not respect borders, and with the disease now in Gaza, there’s a real risk of it spreading to Israel and the broader Middle East, where pockets of unvaccinated populations could become vulnerable.

A health disaster on top of the death and destruction will only serve to further radicalize the Palestinian population. When your children are not only killed by bombs but also crippled by preventable diseases, it’s not hard to see how anger and despair can turn into burning hatred. This is fertile ground for groups like Hamas, who thrive on such despair.

The situation in the West Bank, an ever-simmering cauldron of unrest, is also on the brink. This week, Israeli forces launched their most extensive operation in the West Bank in over two decades, complete with airstrikes, ground raids, and, of course, those ever-present bulldozers ripping through Palestinian communities, ostensibly to root out militants and thwart Iran from supplying them with weapons. Necessary? Yes. But the very tactics Israel is using to suppress violence are almost certainly fueling it. Picture a firefighter who insists on dousing flames with gasoline, then acts surprised when the blaze grows out of control.

The more Israel bulldozes through Palestinian neighborhoods, the more it radicalizes a new generation of Palestinians. It’s a vicious cycle, and both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar know exactly what they’re doing.

Benjamin Netanyahu is playing a high-stakes game in which the prize isn’t merely peace, justice, or even stability—it’s also his own political survival. Listen closely, and you might catch the faint echoes of Winston Churchill in his rhetoric, a calculated move to align himself with a figure of indomitable resolve. But hold the applause. Where Churchill stood defiant against Nazi Germany to save the free world, Netanyahu is a man backed into a corner, frantically trying to punch his way out of a political mess largely of his own making. Critics, including former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert—yes, the one who tried to make peace before the hawks clipped his wings—argue that Netanyahu’s actions are less about defending Israel and more about defending his own political skin.

Let’s be clear: Israel is facing very real threats. Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah to the north, and a veritable buffet of other militant groups in the West Bank make Israel’s security situation as precarious as a tightrope walker on a windy day. But instead of performing a delicate balancing act, Netanyahu’s approach is more like driving a bulldozer through a china shop—both literally and figuratively.

Sinwar, ensconced in his tunnels, knows that every Israeli airstrike, every bulldozed home, every case of polio, only serves to further isolate Israel internationally. He understands that the more desperate his people become, the more likely they are to turn to extremism. For Sinwar, the suffering of his people is a tool—a means to an end. And that end is the continued isolation of Israel, even if it means leading his people into further misery.

But Netanyahu is no less cynical. He knows that his actions are radicalizing the very people he doesn’t kill, ensuring that the conflict continues. For Netanyahu, this war isn’t merely about security or peace—it’s just as much about his political survival. With legal troubles mounting and his coalition shaky, the ongoing conflict is his ace in the hole. The longer the war drags on, the more he can position himself as Israel’s indispensable leader—a modern-day Churchill, minus the moral clarity.

The irony is almost too much to bear. In trying to secure Israel, Netanyahu is alienating the very allies who have been its lifeline. The Biden administration, already exasperated with Netanyahu’s far-right government, is beginning to question whether it can continue to stand by Israel if this strategy continues. The recent poliovirus outbreak only adds another layer of urgency to the question: How long can the U.S. back a strategy that looks more like an endless cycle of provocation and retaliation than a genuine attempt at security?

Meanwhile, Sinwar’s actions in Gaza are no less dangerous. By deliberately provoking Israel and sacrificing his own people, he’s ensuring that the conflict will continue, potentially drawing in regional powers and leading to a broader war.

This ceasefire to deliver the polio vaccine is more than just a humanitarian gesture—it’s a critical test between two leaders whose decisions could determine the future of the region. So far, Netanyahu and Sinwar have prioritized their political survival over the lives of their people, playing a dangerous game with high stakes. But can they stick to the ceasefire long enough to deliver the vaccines and avert a health disaster?

For Netanyahu, the promise of total victory over Hamas is a lofty goal, but one that won’t be achieved by fighting an ideology—especially if thousands more die in the process. The health crisis could be a tipping point, showing that securing Israel's future might also involve preventing further humanitarian catastrophes, which could bolster his standing both domestically and internationally.

For Sinwar, the stakes are just as high. As his people suffer more and more, he may find that their despair could turn against him. Delivering the vaccines could offer a momentary respite and a way to retain some legitimacy among his own people. Both leaders may soon realize that averting a health disaster is not just a moral imperative but a political advantage. If they can manage to maintain the ceasefire for this cause, it could mark a shift—however slight—in a conflict that seems to have no end, proving that sometimes, the most strategic move is to save lives rather than sacrifice them.