A tug of war and some tough love

The US wants to help Israel avoid winning the war with Hamas but losing the battle for the future of Gaza

Photo by Cris Constantin on Unsplash

Welcome to the inaugural issue of Cosmopolitics. I'm sure it will take at least a few issues to get the hang of this newsletter thing, so please be kind! (I always gave a new State Department spokesperson a few briefings to find their footing…so hopefully that good karma will come back to me.) 

Now, to the tug of war between the US and Israel over the war in Gaza - both over the battlefield and the “day after.”

There's a rhythm to US-Israel relations in a crisis. It usually starts with zero daylight between these closest of allies...until Washington inevitably feels the need to give Israel some tough love.

The war, which started as a result of the barbaric October 7 attacks, was no different. And the US was largely supportive, even with there being thousands of Palestinian deaths as Israel went after Hamas in Gaza City. 

After last week’s pause, Israel is expanding its operations to Khan Younis in the southern Gaza strip, where it believes several Hamas leaders are hiding. The IDF has vowed its combat operations there will carry “no less strength” than the devastating ones in the north. 

That’s exactly the type of scorched-earth approach the US has been warning Israel against during this next phase of the war.

And with the civilian death toll mounting again, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stated plainly at the Reagan Defense Forum, an annual gathering of American security officials and members of Congress: Israel needs to protect civilians or risk ‘strategic failure’ in Gaza.

That’s some pretty tough love. Calling the civilian population in Gaza “the center of gravity” in the war with Hamas, Austin warned:

“If you drive them into the arms of the enemy, you replace a tactical victory with a strategic defeat. So I have repeatedly made clear to Israel's leaders that protecting Palestinian civilians in Gaza is both a moral responsibility and a strategic imperative.”

Let’s be clear: The U.S. still supports Israel’s goal of delivering a military defeat to Hamas. But what the administration is saying to Israel is, ‘help us help you.’

Austin is taking some flak for his comments, especially from Republicans like Senator Lindsey Graham. But it’s the same exact message top Biden administration officials have been getting from Arab countries since the war started.

After a full day of meetings Friday with Arab leaders on the sidelines of the COP28 climate conference in Dubai, Vice President Kamala Harris was equally blunt: “Too many innocent Palestinians have been killed. Frankly, the scale of civilian suffering, and the images and videos coming from Gaza are devastating...It is truly heartbreaking.”

If you are tempted to dismiss these statements as anti-Israel, read this tweet by David Makovsky, one of the U.S’ most prominent Israel analysts at The Washington Institute For Near East Policy, one of the most pro-Israel think tanks in Washington. 

Makovsky told me that he offered that stern warning because in the coming days, as Israel is what military planners call “shaping the battlefield” for operations in the south, is when “things really go off the rails.”

“They need to hear it from people like me who aren’t exactly hostile to Israel. Beyond the moral commitment, it's important for US relations, it's important for American public opinion,” he said.  “It would be so incredibly wrong and counterproductive for Israel to risk this steadfast support from the president. I thought there was a learning curve in Israel after those first two weeks but I’m getting déjà vu all over again.”

Since the war started, Palestinians have been caught in a lethal game of musical chairs, being shuffled from one danger zone to another, each choice posing a different but equally fatal risk. Many are ending up at U.N. facilities already crammed with hundreds of thousands of Gazans. Others are being sent to desert-like areas void of the most basic necessities like clean water, food, and sanitation. 

The amount of humanitarian allowed into Gaza each day far outstrips what it needed… And with the UN estimating that 1.8 million Gazans – 80 percent of the population – have been displaced, senior administration officials say the White House is increasingly concerned about pushing the Palestinians further south – a recipe for both an even greater humanitarian toll and a risk to the border with Egypt. They do expect Israel to approve their requests for more aid to flow into Gaza - at least to levels allowed during the pause. More on that from Axios’ Barak Ravid. 

Both Makovsky and US officials acknowledge the efforts Israelis are making to reduce civilian casualties, such as dropping leaflets in Arabic, warning Gazans to evacuate areas around Khan Younis, where they believe Hamas leadership is hiding, and flee further south. The leaflets have a QR code to a map of more than 2000 quadrants, which Israel calls “evacuation zones” in Gaza, a plan pushed by Washington.

“It's not like they've totally blown us off on this,” one senior administration official told me, 

“They are making an effort inside their own system, with a domestic population that is still angry and afraid.” 

Admittedly, most modern militaries wouldn’t publicize their targets beforehand to avoid civilian casualties. But the evacuation plan is unorganized and extremely complicated at best– even more so for a population on the move with spotty communications and often without electricity to charge their cell phones.

As Israel continues to shape the battlefield for the next phase of the war, the Biden administration is starting to shape what it wants - and doesn't want - for the post-war landscape in Gaza.

In Dubai, Harris laid out some clear markers for the day after the war:

“No forcible displacement, no reoccupation, no siege or blockade, no reduction in territory, and no use of Gaza as a platform for terrorism.”

Those principles are sharply at odds with some of the ideas Netanyahu’s right-wing government has been hinting at.

• In an interview with ABC News earlier this month, Netanyahu said Israel will have the "overall security responsibility" for an “indefinite period" after the war ends.

• Last week, the Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom reported about a plan, drafted by Netanyahu’s close aide Ron Dermer, the former Israeli ambassador the US, for the “day after” in Gaza that involves loosening Gaza’s borders with Egypt and sees crossings and enables a mass refugee exodus to “thin the population of Gaza to the minimum possible.”

• And on Saturday night, Netanyahu vowed during a press conference to prevent the Palestinian Authority from taking control of the Gaza Strip once Israel succeeds in removing Hamas from power, describing its creation as “a terrible mistake.”

Harris further elaborated on a US vision for post-war Gaza - the product of the last few weeks of shuttle diplomacy by Blinken and other US officials with Arab and Israeli leaders.

That includes “a clear political horizon for the Palestinian people toward a state of their own led by a revitalized Palestinian Authority and backed by significant support from the international community and the countries of the region.”

We will unpack that vision – and why it hinges on a Hamas-free Gaza – tomorrow.

So…one and done! Let me know what you think. I hope you'll share Cosmopolitics with your friends. And please reach out – not just with news tips, which are always appreciated, but with topics you're interested in reading about and discussing.