Buckle up for 2024
We are headed for set of pivotal moments that could bring a year of big change
We turn the page on 2023 swimming in the aftermath of a tumultuous year. The war in Gaza is sstill white-hot, while the echoes of conflict in Ukraine are still reverberating. From the persistent challenges of the international cost of living crisis and post-pandemic recovery to frightening climate disasters, these issues will continue to shape next year’s geopolitical landscape.
Next year the world isn't just taking another routine spin around the sun; we are approaching a series of pivotal moments that could make 2024 a year of significant change: From critical elections that could redefine global alliances and leadership, to simmering conflicts that threaten to boil over, and the relentless march of technology that continues to disrupt at an unprecedented pace
Below are some jumping-off points for the main issues I will be focused on in 2024:
The year of the mega-election: This coming year will be a vote-o-Rama, with some 4.2 billion people – more than half the world's population – eligible to vote in more than 70 countries. Without a doubt, our election here in the U.S. is one of the dominant global concerns. If voters swing for Trump, it could significantly influence everything from military support for Ukraine to the Middle East and climate policy and beyond.
Taiwan’s presidential and parliamentary election next month could significantly influence Beijing's approach to the island. Chinese insiders are warning cross-strait tensions could escalate into an armed conflict if Lai Ching-te, the front-runner and currently Taiwan's vice president from the ruling independence-leaning Democratic People’s Party, wins the vote - even though he said he would follow President Tsai’s cautious China policy stance.
Putin's likely to win Russia’s so-called election, but the true measure of his grip on power and the Russian public’s appetite for the ongoing war will be under the microscope. The same goes for India, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is still on track to win a third term in next April’s election, despite growing unhappiness over high inflation and unemployment. His win could crank up India’s volume on the world stage. And Iran's parliamentary elections in March, the first since the 2022 protests, will offer a glimpse into the regime's stability. For a good look at upcoming elections worldwide, check out this piece from Time:
How the Ukraine war will be influenced by global votes. As I’ve previously discussed, 2024 will likely be e a stalemate year for Ukraine. Putin is digging in his heels with a massive defense budget, signaling he's not backing down anytime soon. The war's trajectory will depend heavily on the strategic decisions on aid for Ukraine made by key global players and global elections could flip the script, especially if the U.S. swings for Trump. Ukraine's own presidential election, if it takes place, will be a critical test for President Zelensky.
Middle East on the brink: Despite Israel's efforts, analysts predict that Hamas will likely survive, at least as a political movement, which means a growing possibility that Israel might maintain a long-term military presence in Gaza. We could also see the fighting spread to East Jerusalem and the West Bank, where Hamas is active and has popular support. The big question is whether border clashes between Hezbollah and Israeli forces will explode into a full-blown conflict. And continued attacks by Houthi militants in the Red Sea could see an increase in oil prices and trade disruptions that hit the world economy hard in 2024.
The events of October 7 and their aftermath have deeply impacted Israeli society and politics, potentially leading to more radical stances. This shift could further diminish the prospects for a two-state solution. Again, a lot hinges on how the U.S. election plays out. The Gaza conflict could hurt Biden’s chances of reelection if young, progressive, and minority voters stay home in swing states that helped him secure the White House in 2020. Trump, a strong supporter of the Israeli right, could green-light policies such as the annexation of the West Bank, further exacerbating tensions in the region..
The Multipolar World and the New Cold War The rhetoric of a new cold war between the US and China is intensifying, with Taiwan emerging as a potential flashpoint. China has Taiwan in its sights, it's flexing its muscles and the U.S. is trying to figure out its next move.
The competition for green resources and technological supremacy will involve not just superpowers but also emerging economies, reshaping global alliances and economic dependencies. We're looking at a world where it's not just two superpowers anymore – it's a whole bunch of players jockeying for position. Green resources, tech supremacy – it's a global tug-of-war, and everyone wants a piece of the pie.
Riding the Economic Wave or Wiping Out? The global economy enters 2024 shadowed by uncertainty. The economic health of major players like the U.S. and China has global repercussions. If either one of these two economic superpowers hits a bump, it's not just their problem – it's everyone's headache. The shift to green energy is throwing another curveball into the mix and could affect global trade, employment, and socio-economic stability in 2024.
What’s next in Artificial Intelligence? AI's role in transforming industries and influencing global events is becoming increasingly significant. I think AI will continue to change the game in everything from business to warfare. Its role in spreading disinformation, especially during next year’s critical elections, will be a growing concern. Balancing the benefits of AI with ethical considerations and regulation will be a key challenge.
In 2024, the world is not just marking time; it's making crucial choices. The elections are just the starting gun: The direction of ongoing and emerging conflicts and the impact of technological advancements make 2024 a year of global decision-making. What follows – in Ukraine and Israel, the global economy and the AI revolution – will be shaped by these choices.
Wishing you all a happy, healthy new year and look forward to discussing these issues and more in 2024. Drop a note in the comments about what you are following and what you would like me to write about.
Loose change: some conflicts to keep an eye on from the International Rescue Committee’s emergency watchlist for 2024, documenting the 20 countries at the greatest risk of security deterioration. These countries account for around 10% of the world’s population but around 70% of its displaced persons, along with approximately 86% of global humanitarian need.
Sudan’s deepening crisis: The conflict between Sudan's military factions is expected to persist, with peace initiatives limited and the risk of regional spillover growing, increased displacement, and urgent humanitarian needs.
Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda: The contentious election results in DRC could lead to prolonged political instability and potential violence that escalates into a broader regional conflict.
Myanmar's Ongoing Turmoil: The conflict is likely to intensify, with the military facing multiple armed groups. There are fears of the military employing more brutal tactics, including indiscriminate bombing, in response to the growing resistance.
The Sahel's Fragile Stability: The region may continue to face coups and heightened insurgencies, fueled by dissatisfaction among neglected populations. The ongoing conflict and instability will likely exacerbate humanitarian crises and displacement.
Potential Flashpoints: Areas like Haiti, Guatemala, Ethiopia, and the Taiwan Strait also remain high-risk zones for conflict in 2024. Again, the outcomes of key elections in the US, Russia, India, and others, will significantly influence international responses and strategies towards these conflicts.
The year ahead looks bleak. However, getting out to vote, hope and prayer can only help. Thanks for your re-cap. We all can use a couple of miracles and love for humankind.