Can Biden be the Israel whisperer?

Schumer's speech missed the mark. It's up to Biden to present the Israeli public with stark choices

Following Israel’s airstrike on Rafah over the weekend, resulting in a significant blaze that claimed the lives of at least 45 displaced Palestinians and sparked global outrage, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems intent on indefinitely pursuing his scorched-earth tactics in Gaza.

In a defiant speech from the Knesset on Monday, Netanyahu vowed to continue fighting until all of Israel’s objectives are achieved. He rejected accusations that his government is not negotiating in good faith for the release of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza as if he was a used car salesman accused of pushing a lemon.

After the address, former Prime Minister Ehud Barak tweeted, “Netanyahu is responsible for dragging the war for 8 months and now wants 3 more months; by then all hostages would die…”

Barak is by no means alone. Not only has Netanyahu drawn international ire, but he is also facing growing internal criticism from the public and most of Israel’s security establishment. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and other senior military officials have publicly rebuked Netanyahu for his lack of a clear strategy for Gaza’s future post-Hamas.

On Sunday, the former head of Mossad, Danny Yatom, said that "time is running out" for the Israeli captives in Gaza, and that Israel will fail to achieve any of its war objectives.

Then, on Monday, Israeli war cabinet minister Gadi Eisenkot predicted fighting in the Gaza Strip would "continue for years." Eisenkot was quoted as saying during a session in the Foreign Affairs and Security Committee, "What needs to be done now is to reach the end of fighting in Rafah and at the same time move forward along the path of a hostage deal,” emphasizing that negotiating a deal involving captives is crucial from a strategic standpoint.

Close to 100,000 families have been displaced while Israel fights Hamas in the south and Hezbollah in the north with no plan for their return. Sources in Israel say Netanyahu gave an instruction for hotels housing displaced people to be prepared to keep them there until the end of the year.

A recent poll conducted by the Israeli Broadcasting Corporation indicates that over 70 percent of Israelis want Prime Minister Netanyahu to resign, reflecting not only deep dissatisfaction with his leadership but also increasing disapproval of his handling of the conflict.

Despite this, Netanyahu has managed to stay attuned to public sentiment, often aligning his policies to maintain enough support to continue However, there is a noticeable shift in the public mood, and not just from hostage families.

Weary of prolonged conflict and sensing a lack of strategy and clarity about the war's objectives, Israelis are questioning what Israel aims to achieve in what is now Israel’s longest war. Nobody likes riding on a roller coaster with no clear destination in sight.

“I think one of the shifts that's happening is this really public is saying, ‘Listen, we’re not sure what the end game is and need to know where this is going.’ We need to start getting answers,” a former Israeli diplomat told me. “We are being asked to do more and more reserve duty and spend more and more time away from our homes. Soldiers are dying every day. And he doesn't have an answer for any of those things. Because he's avoided taking any strategic decisions to kind of keep everyone happy up until now.”

Protests in Israel are increasing week by week. The anticipated departure of Benny Gantz from the war cabinet by early June could further ignite these protests, removing any semblance of reasonable legitimacy from Netanyahu’s government. Reservists, tired of fighting without a strategy, are widely expected to protest as well, sparking another, and potentially more dangerous, wave of discontent.

The Biden administration is balancing the desire to support Israel with concerns about Israel’s military strategies and their humanitarian implications. Biden has emphasized ongoing military support while pausing specific shipments, like 2,000-pound bombs, due to their potential use in densely populated areas like Rafah.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu frequently asserts that Israel is standing alone against its adversaries, but since October 7 the United States has supplied Israel with the largest airlift of war supplies since the Yom Kippur War in 1973. Furthermore, Congress has approved $14 billion in special military aid, underscoring the unwavering U.S. commitment.

The United States has also positioned its top naval assets to protect Israel's shores and the Red Sea from threats posed by Hezbollah and Iran. It has been instrumental in countering regional threats, such as the Iranian attack on April 13, and has provided a diplomatic shield for Israel in challenging international arenas like the UN and the International Criminal Court.

Despite this unwavering support, Netanyahu has consistently stuck his fingers in his fingers in his ears, opting to ignore the Biden administration's strategic advice. The White House has been peppered with questions and criticisms for months about whether President Joe Biden has lost the ability to influence Netanyahu, with Israel’s incursion into Rafah as the most recent example.

Diplomatic relations are often compared to “tending the garden.” In Israel’s case, it’s more like pruning away dead branches to let the healthy ones thrive. Israel cannot face threats from Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran alone; it must collaborate with allies. To achieve its goals, restore stability and improve its global image, Israel needs leadership that is not constrained by extremist factions.

Netanyahu clearly has no interest in selling that story. Several U.S., Arab and Israeli sources say that message needs to be delivered directly to the Israeli people by going over his head.

“We need to feel loved and supported, especially now,” another former Israeli diplomat said. “We're not in the mood for lectures from Europeans who will give us their moral opinions on what we're doing. When it comes from people who are who we know are supportive, and we know are friends and stand with us, that's the most powerful way to do it. Biden did this fantastically well for the vast majority of this war.”

Two months ago, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer addressed the Israeli people, calling for new elections and sharply criticizing Netanyahu. However, it is clear now that this was the wrong message and Schumer was the wrong messenger. As I wrote at the time, his approach only deepened the divide and missed the mark. Biden, also a lifelong supporter of Israel, is seen as the right one to make it clear to Israelis what's at stake.

“He needs to address the Israelis directly and say, ‘we support you 100 percent, but you now have a decision to make as a country about where you're going and what you're doing. You need to start making some tough decisions, and your leaders are not giving you those choices,’ ” another former diplomat said. “And it's your job as friends to let us know that we have to make that choice.'“

The choices for Israel are stark but clear: keep fighting a forever war with Hamas, face a guerrilla uprising in Gaza and continue to take low-level rocket fire from Lebanon for the next several years, or work with the U.S. on a path that brings back the hostages, leads to normalization with Saudi Arabia and strengthens Israel in the region – politically and economically.

Instead of saying "Netanyahu has to go," the focus should be on presenting Israelis with clear choices about their future which their leader failed to present. Let’s face it, when it when it comes to navigating through turbulent waters, a little emotional life raft can go a long way.