Dissing Goldilocks in the Middle East

To execute his Mideast strategy, Biden must decisively leverage all the tools of American power

credit: State Department

Last week I wrote about the need for President Biden to move from a reactive posture to a more proactive strategic policy in order to deter Iran and its proxies. That approach needs to be expanded to his Middle East policy more broadly.

Diplomats say it is a quiet moment in the region, while everyone waits to see if cease-fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas will bear fruit. In Doha today, Secretary of State Antony Blinken sounded positive that a cease-fire could be at hand. It would be a positive development that would not just give Palestinians in Gaza a badly-needed reprieve, it could also prevent the recent cycle of violence in the region from exploding into a white hot war.

But let’s get one thing straight: the war in Gaza isn't just a “problem” to be solved; it's a part of a regional Gordian Knot that Biden needs to slice through with decisive action, not just untangle with careful fingers. The cease-fire negotiations are teetering on the edge of something that could either be a monumental step towards peace in the region or just another false dawn.

In a recent column New York Times columnist Tom Friedman lays out what he proposes could be a “Biden Doctrine," a roadmap so desperately needed for an administration that's been playing whack-a-mole in a region that doesn't much care for mallets.

Friedman isn't just another talking head; his insights come from deep wells of experience and connections in the region and in Washington that span decades. His blueprint offers more than just a path through the thicket of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks to address the broader geopolitical dynamics of the region: the establishment of a Palestinian state, Iran’s ambitions and fostering of regional stability.

We have long known the elements required for a comprehensive U.S. approach: A two state solution, which includes both a deft handling of Netanyahu and a rallying cry for Palestinian reform, and a muscular approach to Iran - all while coaxing Gulf allies to stay invested.

Yet, the linchpin of such a strategy — and its greatest challenge — lies in its execution.

The Middle East doesn't need a Goldilocks policy, carefully trying not to tread on too many toes and hoping a delicate balance among the region’s diverse interests will somehow manifest itself “just right.” It needs a president that's willing to stomp through the room, grab the bull by the horns, and make it clear who's in charge.

(I do like to use the “grab the bull by the horns” analogy a lot, but it’s not to be confused with what some consider to be Trump’s “bull-in-a-china-shop” approach.)

“The people in the region can see the gap between the rhetoric of a two state solution and then what it takes to get there,” says Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and co-founder of The Liberal Patriot on Substack. “There are forces in the region that are opposed to a two state solution, both in Tehran and in the Netanyahu government, and the administration is not willing to bear any political diplomatic and military costs to try to isolate them.”

While is why the rhetoric must be matched with decisive, unambiguous action that walks the talk.

For Netanyahu, the message from Biden should be as subtle as a sledgehammer: Wrap up your military operations in Gaza, get serious about allowing more humanitarian aid into Gaza and cut the cord with right-wing extremists who dream of a Middle East without Palestinians.

History shows us that U.S. presidents can wield their power effectively; it's high time Biden took a page out of their book. Whether it's Clinton tagging extremist groups as terrorists or H.W. Bush dangling loan guarantees over Israel's head during the Madrid Conference, there's precedent for playing hardball—and winning. Netanyahu’s acquiescence will probably spell the end of his coalition but most Israelis, and all of the Arabs, are eager to see the back of his head.

To the Palestinians, Biden's message needs to be equally blunt: It's time to get your house in order. Identify new leadership committed to reforms moving beyond the entrenched corruption that has hindered progress. Transparency, reform, and a clear path towards credible governance aren't just nice-to-haves; they're non-negotiable in order to realize their demands for statehood.

Reports that the U.S. is reviewing policy options to recognize a Palestinian state as a precursor to negotiations may be crowd pleasing, both in the region and here at home, where Biden’s steadfast support for Israel has alienated younger and more progressive voters and threatens his prospects in for re-election. But Palestine would be a state in name only without genuine Israeli buy-in - the kind that will only come from direct negotiations with a legitimate Palestinian government.

And then there's Iran, a country that seems to relish its role as the Middle East's provocateur-in-chief. A stern "don't" from Biden isn't going to cut it. Neither, says Katulis, is Blinken’s mixed message of ‘we want to deter you, but we want to de escalate.”

“There 'is a tension between those two dynamics when you're dealing with a bad actor like Iran that has destabilized the region for decades,” Katulis says.

The U.S. needs to make it crystal clear once and for all that any and all aspects of Iran's influence, including its proxies and military capabilities across the region, are fair game, and any threats to American interests will be met with a response so swift and decisive, it'll make Tehran's head spin. This isn't about gunning for war; it's about being ready to defend peace with all the might of the U.S. military and intelligence apparatus.

But what of our Gulf allies? Frankly, all of the above will do more to engage them in supporting a comprehensive peace strategy than a dozen trips by Anthony Blinken to the region. But the U.S. should be unequivocal: Stop waiting for the U.S. to put a “ready-to-wear” plan on the table. It’s time for them to roll up their sleeves and dive into the messy work of peace-building. Stand with us and contribute to a plan that pushes for real peace. Again, the negotiations during the Madrid Conference showed how bringing regional actors together to participate in multilateral negotiations on a number of regional issues became a framework for direct negotiations.

Biden stands at a crossroads, faced with a choice between continuing a reactive, piecemeal approach that leaves the region mired in the same cycles of violence and retribution or embracing a bold, assertive transformative strategy that doesn't shy away from hard truths and tougher actions.

Implementing such a strategy requires more than just diplomatic niceties and cautious optimism. It demands a president willing to leverage every tool at his disposal—military, diplomatic economic, and political—to shepherd these disparate parties towards a common goal.

This isn't just a test of policy; it's a test of will. Can Biden marshal the full force of American influence to bring about a new era in the Middle East? The answer lies in whether he's willing to embrace such decisive, unambiguous action —because in the Middle East, half-measures don't just fail; they backfire spectacularly.