Europe on the fringe
What the EU's lurch to the right means for the world – and how it impacts the US elections
The European Parliament elections have undeniably shifted the political landscape to the right, driven by voter concerns over the economy, migration, and international conflicts. These changes set to ripple across global policies and even the upcoming U.S. elections. As the political landscape becomes more polarized and nationalistic, the implications for global stability and cooperation are profound.
Before Europeans start packing their bags for the doomsday bunker, know this: the center held, and mainstream parties still dominate the European parliament. This means while some policy changes are on the horizon, a dramatic rightward lurch isn't in the cards just yet.
And despite their gains, far-right parties face a fundamental problem: creating a cohesive front in the European Parliament. Their nation-specific grievances and policies can hamper collective action, making it difficult to form stable coalitions and enact new policies. This disunity might limit their legislative impact, ensuring that mainstream parties retain significant control over the EU's policy direction.
European diplomats and experts do expect rightward nudges on hot-button issues like migration, anti-Green policies, and national sovereignty—a fresh spin on Euroscepticism that champions more autonomy in defense, the economy, and the Eurozone. Let’s break down some key questions about the potential impact - in Europe and here in the US as the November election approaches:
What happens to immigration in Europe
If you think Europe’s migration debate was already heated, brace yourself—it’s about to get a whole lot hotter. Far-right parties, such as France’s National Rally and Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD), have ridden a wave of anti-immigration sentiment to electoral success, reflecting widespread voter dissatisfaction with current migration policies.
What does that mean? Probably stricter asylum policies: The European Parliament's new immigration policy, which expedites asylum cases and speeds up deportations, is likely to be enforced more stringently. Expect to see fewer welcome mats and more "Do Not Enter" signs.
There will also likely be an increased push for national sovereignty over immigration, with countries like Italy and Hungary seeking more autonomy in handling migration issues. This could lead to more restrictive immigration procedures, reducing the number of asylum seekers and migrants entering Europe. It could also ramp up tensions within the EU as member states prioritize their national interests over collective European solutions.
What does this mean for relations with China and Russia?
The right-wing surge could lead to more assertive and nationalist foreign policies within the EU, affecting relations with both China and Russia. Expect less hand-holding and more finger-pointing.
Right-wing parties often prioritize national economic interests, which could lead to a more cautious approach to Chinese investments in Europe. Expect tighter policies to protect critical infrastructure and technology from Chinese influence. The EU might adopt a tougher stance against China’s human rights abuses and territorial ambitions, aligning more closely with the U.S. position on China.
Leaders in Moscow aren’t unhappy with the election results. The new focus on national interests could see some countries advocating for a more conciliatory approach towards Russia, balancing economic and energy dependencies with geopolitical concerns. Parties like the French National Rally and Germany’s AfD have expressed doubts about continued support for Ukraine, which might translate into fights over reducing EU financial and military aid.
All of this means the EU’s collective foreign policy stance may become less predictable, with increased internal disagreements potentially weakening the bloc’s unified front against both Chinese and Russian geopolitical maneuvers.
How about climate policy?
If you thought green policies were safe, think again. The right-wing gains signal potential challenges to the EU’s ambitious climate agenda.
Far-right and nationalist parties often view green policies as burdensome and economically damaging, particularly to rural and less affluent regions. This could result in pushback against new climate regulations and attempts to roll back existing policies in favor of increased support for traditional industries like agriculture and manufacturing, which feel threatened by stringent environmental regulations.
This resistance could slow the EU’s progress on its climate goals, particularly if right-wing parties form influential coalitions. However, the overall commitment to climate action may persist, driven by centrist and left-wing parties, albeit at a potentially slower pace.
The center’s hold means that any significant policy shifts will likely be gradual and contested. The overall direction of the EU will still be tempered by mainstream parties. This dynamic ensures that dramatic shifts are unlikely in the immediate future, maintaining a balance between new right-wing influences and established centrist policie
How will this shift influence global politics?
The rise of right-wing parties in Europe has broader implications for global political dynamics, particularly concerning the transatlantic alliance and the stability of liberal democracies. Buckle up, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
The election results highlight a growing trend of populist and nationalist sentiments challenging the traditional political establishments. This could result in a more fragmented and less cooperative international landscape, affecting global governance on issues like trade, security, and climate change.
European leaders are wary of a potential destabilization of the transatlantic alliance if Trump is re-elected, given his America-first agenda, which often clashes with European priorities. Rising discontent with democracy, as evidenced by falling confidence in democratic institutions across Europe and the U.S., could lead to further political instability and challenges to the liberal democratic order. If Trump is re-elected and finds common cause with far-right leaders, this instability could increase.
Europe’s center holds, But what about the U.S.?
No, dear reader, America is not immune. The right-wing surge in European elections was driven by most of the same concerns that trouble voters in the United States.
Far-right European candidates with platforms similar to Trump's—populist nationalism, strong anti-immigration rhetoric, a tough economic stance, and disdain for governing elites and global institutions—made significant strides.
According to a poll across the EU’s five most populous countries—Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Poland, in addition to Sweden—by the European platform Focaldata, “improving the economy and reducing inflation” was the No. 1 issue for European voters. This was followed by “international conflict and war” and “immigration and asylum-seekers.” Sound familiar? Trump consistently outpolls President Biden on economic matters, and the significant role of immigration in driving European right-wing support mirrors the strong anti-immigration stance of Trump’s base in the U.S.
U.S. voters may not directly emulate European trends, and the American presidential elections are distinct from those in the European Union. But a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll found most Americans “say the economy and inflation are the most important issues determining who they will support for president in November.” More Americans trust Trump over Biden on these issues and feel they were better off financially under Trump than Biden. However, Americans’ views on both of the candidates remain dim.
Trump is aggressively promoting these same issues—unchecked migration, economic pain from high prices, and the cost of climate change policies—that will be crucial in the presidential race.
Fatigue over the war in Ukraine helped draw a surge from parties further to the right, including in Germany and France, where voters expressed more skepticism over aid to Ukraine. The Israel-Hamas war has emerged as much more prominent than Ukraine, splitting two major Democratic voting blocs. Many Muslim and Arab Americans have floated the possibility of withholding their votes for Biden in response to his handling of the conflict.
European allies seem to grasp the stakes of the U.S. election more clearly than many Americans. They recognize the threat to long-standing democratic alliances and the broad political consensus that has resisted extremism and authoritarianism. But the success of European far-right parties could give U.S. populist movements a shot in the arm, cranking up polarization and making the next election cycle even spicier—if that is even possible. Trump’s bromance with European populists, such as Hungary’s Viktor Orban, and his cheerleading of their policies might hit a sweet spot with his base in the U.S. If he continues to tap into people’s emotions and grievances as skillfully as his European counterparts, it could fuel his comeback.
Loose change
Macron’s snap election gamble
French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for snap legislative elections is a high-risk strategy aimed at consolidating power and countering far-right surge toward Marine Le Pen. If successful, Macron hopes to stabilize his party’s position and prepare for the next presidential election in 2027. However, if the National Rally secures a majority, it could force Macron to work with a political opponent as prime minister, complicating his administration's ability to govern effectively.
Decline of the Greens
The decline of Green parties across Europe signals voter fatigue with aggressive climate policies. This shift may lead to a re-evaluation of the European Green Deal, with potential rollbacks or slower progress on environmental regulations. The balance between economic growth and environmental protection will be a key area of contention in the new parliament.
It is telling how stupid the (German) Greens are. They shut down the nuclear power stations and are now using lots of coal to generate electricity and buy electricity generated by nuclear power stations from neighbouring countries for a lot of money. So they cause more air pollution at home and buy from abroad electricity generated by their big enemy, nuclear power. Of course there is not a single Green in the Bundestag that managed to graduate from a university.
Could this be a political shift to a more generous attitude towards freedom? Or simply a turn slightly to the right. John Paul II, Thatcher and Reagan introduced an era of determined policies for freedom, and a willingness to push back tyranny.
But...do we have those kind of leaders today? I think not. In the absence of a strong United States and a coherent consistent commitment to free-market principles the world will continue to drift towards anti-liberal omnipotent government. I have little confidence in the crowd, but do have hope for individuals.