Follow the blinking red lights

In China and Israel, the Biden administration needs to move from crisis response to crisis prevention

In global politics, leaders often don't just whisper their intentions; they frequently shout them from the rooftops. Yet, we're still surprised when their words turn into actions.

That’s what is happening in Israel, where far-right government ministers aren't just musing about displacing Palestinians from Gaza; they're drawing up blueprints and talking to third countries about re-settling Palestinian migrants. Then there are China’s designs on Taiwan. Beijing isn’t just giving Taipei a stern look; it's practically doing a military haka.

In both cases, the lights are blinking red. By ignoring them, the U.S will be forced to respond to events, when it could be driving them. The Biden administration needs to learn from its mistakes, most recently in Ukraine and Afghanistan.

Let’s start with Putin’s not-so-secret invasion playbook for Ukraine. The man wasn't exactly covert about his intentions. He was dropping hints the size of Matryoshka dolls, and we were all pretending they were just decorative. Satellite images showed Russian troops massing at the border, yet many chose to believe it was all for show.

The U.S. rapidly coordinated a global coalition to punish Russia diplomatically, economically, and financially. It also led the way in providing military assistance to Ukraine. Still, the U.S. had a toolkit brimming with deterrents – military aid, economic sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and information warfare - that it could have deployed before Russian tanks crossed the border: from reinforcing NATO's eastern flank to providing Ukraine with more substantial military aid earlier to deploying sanctions against Russian oligarchs, major banks, and key industries preemptively to choke off Putin's economic wiggle room. Washington should have also rallied its allies earlier for a united front, especially NATO countries. All of this would have signaled to Putin that the U.S. was serious about backing Ukraine, potentially making him think twice about rolling the dice on an invasion.

Then there was the shameful way America pulled out of Afghanistan, where the Taliban have reinstated many of their harshest policies and pushed women out of public life. Today, 97% of Afghans are living in poverty.

President Trump may have forced the U.S. military’s withdrawal, but then-candidate Biden campaigned on pulling troops out of the country. Even then, it was pretty clear the Taliban had no intent on maintaining Afghanistan’s democratic society. Once in office, Biden acknowledged President Ghani’s political shortcomings and his micromanaging of the war, yet was unwilling to use the United States’ considerable political and economic leverage to get him to change course as the Taliban continued to gain ground. In the end, just like the Afghan army, the White House accepted a Taliban takeover as inevitable. Biden squandered eight months in office without putting mechanisms in place for an orderly withdrawal or preserving Afghanistan’s gains to protect nearly 40 million Afghans, resulting in one of America’s biggest foreign policy mistakes in modern history.

The US can avoid these mistakes in Israel. Months before comments by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir were advocating for the resettlement of Palestinians outside of Gaza, Israeli media reported on a government plan for the “day after” the war that involved loosening Gaza’s borders with Egypt enabling a mass refugee exodus to “thin the population of Gaza to the minimum possible.”

Before two million Palestinians are pushed out of Gaza, the U.S. needs to be clear: displacing people en masse is not just bad PR; it's against international law. Washington isn’t just a spectator with popcorn; it can influence the plot by using financial influence, diplomatic prowess, strategic partnerships, and the power of public opinion more effectively.

The US gives Israel $3.8 billion in annual military aid. This isn't pocket change we're talking about; it's serious money that can make or break Israel’s military capabilities. This is not about cutting off funds like a disgruntled parent; it's about setting clear expectations. Those tough conversations can’t just happen behind closed doors, but should occasionally be out in the open. The U.S. also has a network of allies who share its concerns and can create a chorus of voices that is hard to ignore.

The same goes for China, where the U.S. is treating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan as inevitable and simply parking aircraft in the Pacific won’t prevent it. The U.S. needs a comprehensive strategy to keep Taiwan one step ahead of China: One that blends military deterrence with diplomatic finesse, economic resilience, and information warfare. That could include bolstering Taiwan’s trade ties, integrating it into international agreements, and creating a global consensus that any aggressive move against Taiwan is a threat to international stability. Check out

Bill Bishop

for more comprehensive coverage of Taiwan.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Donald Trump casually dropping hints about being a dictator. Unlike his Access Hollywood tape, this isn’t locker room talk. It foreshadows a future where Trump, if re-elected, would have the power to make good on his threats, for example, to punish his political opponents, whom he called “vermin” who need to be exterminated, or violate the human rights of immigrants, who he said are “poisoning the blood of our country,” or have former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley put on trial for treason. Of course American voters are responsible for that outcome. Hopefully enough of them are paying attention.

More often than not, the potential signs for global flashpoints are there, loud and clear. So when leaders tell us what they're planning, maybe, just maybe, we should take them at their word.

It's not about being paranoid; it's about being prepared. The U.S. has more cards to play than it might think in shaping events and preventing the next big crisis, rather than being forced to respond when things spiral out of control. If Washington doesn’t use its leverage to ensure these plans remain just words, it risks becoming an enabler, complicit in what happens next.