Mexico's new boss: same as the old boss?

Claudia Sheinbaum's relationship with Washington will largely be determined by the outcome of the US election

Is Claudia Sheinbaum's recent election as Mexico's first female, and Jewish, president merely a historic achievement—or potentially a seismic shift in the country's political landscape?

Sheinbaum’s decisive victory isn't just about breaking glass ceilings; it could be a harbinger of significant changes within Mexico and in its relationship with the United States. This relationship, often fraught with imbalances, is poised for fresh challenges and opportunities under Sheinbaum's leadership.

Sheinbaum represents both a continuation of her predecessor and a potential for change. While her political stance has largely mirrored that of her mentor, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), their styles diverge in meaningful ways, and their policies may diverge as well

AMLO, known for his charismatic and often controversial approach, has focused on centralizing power. Sheinbaum, however, brings a technocratic and potentially reformist outlook as a former climate scientist with a doctorate in energy engineering.

Sheinbaum faces the daunting task of addressing Mexico’s internal issues, such as persistent violence and the role of the military in civilian affairs. AMLO’s strategy of militarizing domestic security has had mixed results, and Sheinbaum is expected to focus on strengthening civilian police and prosecutors’ offices.

In the wake of her election, analysts have pointed to the continued influence of AMLO, his powerful political machine, and his desire to maintain influence behind the scenes. The real question is: Can Sheinbaum navigate these internal dynamics to implement her vision?

“By posing this question about whether she will be her own person or AMLO’s puppet, people are dismissing that her vision is actually the same as AMLO's,” says Michael Schifter, senior fellow at The Dialogue and a professor at Georgetown University. “Their backgrounds and their styles are dramatically different, but whether their policy stances are all that different is another question.”

When it comes to the relationship with the U.S., Sheinbaum's leadership could signal subtle shifts. AMLO’s transactional approach with Biden, where aggressive rhetoric was balanced with deal-making, helped maintain a working relationship. Sheinbaum’s style, perceived as sterner and firmer, may not lend itself as readily to the same kind of negotiation and compromise. This could lead to more tension with the U.S. under her administration. However, Sheinbaum could cooperate with Washington on issues like clean energy, where her background and Biden's policies align.

But let’s face it, the real game-changer will be the outcome of the next U.S. presidential election. Whether Joe Biden secures reelection or Donald Trump makes a comeback, the impact on security, trade, and immigration policies will be profound, shaping Mexico's internal decisions, especially concerning the role of its military.

Biden and Trump have markedly different approaches to this relationship. Generally, Biden's policies have focused on collaboration and reversing some of Trump's restrictive border measures, but his executive action on border control Tuesday indicates a tougher stance on immigration as he faces reelection pressures.

The sweeping new measures, effectively closing the border when illegal entries surpass 2,500 per day, restricting access to asylum, and allowing for rapid deportation of migrants, will require cooperation from Mexico. In rolling out the new border measures, Biden pledged to build on “a strong partnership of trust” with Mexico “as an equal partner” with AMLO and, eventually, with Sheinbaum’s government.

“It could inflame the relationship at a very sensitive moment between the United States and Mexico,” says Schifter of Biden’s new policy. “I expect pretty strong backlash.”

Trump, on the other hand, has vowed to resume and intensify his hardline policies if reelected, including mass deportations and the completion of the border wall. In essence, AMLO struck an understanding with Trump: He would cooperate on Trump’s immigration policies if the U.S. turned a blind eye to AMLO’s approach to human rights and corruption—issues which don’t concern Trump anyway. As Reuters put it, his successor is unlikely to repeat the same “bromance.”

Sheinbaum, who studied in the U.S. and speaks English, understands American politics enough to know she must prepare for both scenarios: balancing the need for cooperation with Biden’s administration while bracing for the possibility of a more unpredictable and antagonistic Trump presidency.

It won’t be exactly easy with Biden. But if Trump, who, if reelected, makes good on his campaign promise to deport millions of Americans and possibly even send U.S. troops into Mexico to bomb drug cartels’ drug labs in response to America’s fentanyl crisis, Schifter says the relationship “would just explode.”

Sheinbaum has said she think Mexico will have good relations with Washington “whether President Biden or President Trump wins.”

'We have very strong economic integration with the United States. We are now the principal trading partner, and that requires us to have a good relationship,” she said on the campaign trail. “President López Obrador in the end had a good relationship with Trump and I don't see why we wouldn't be able to have it as well.”

In response to Trump’s campaign rhetoric that migrants are 'poisoning the blood of our country,’ she said, “obviously we are always going to defend Mexicans abroad. We are not in favor of any discriminatory discourse, but there is going to be a good relationship.”

Mexico has always been viewed as the lesser partner in its relationship with the U.S., but it is now a formidable country with a large economy and the largest trading partner of the United States. Even before Sheinbaum’s historic election, Mexico has made significant strides in gender equality, surpassing even the U.S. in many aspects.

Furthermore, Mexico's strategic importance extends beyond its economic ties with the U.S. China has shown increasing interest in courting Mexico, recognizing its value as a trade partner and a gateway to the U.S. market. This geopolitical maneuvering underscores the critical role Mexico plays on the global stage. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is up for review in July 2026, a critical juncture for the future of the trade deal.

As the USMCA review approaches in 2026, both Biden and Trump will have China’s connection with Mexico on their minds. In 2023, Mexico supplanted China as the top exporter to the United States, yet China has deepened its investment presence in Mexico as a gateway to export to the United States under the auspices of the USMCA. This back-door Chinese access to the U.S. market is already causing a stir in Washington.

Regardless of who is the next U.S. president, a Democratic or Republican administration will likely pursue an offensive strategy aimed at enforcing stricter trade rules and raising the barriers to direct and indirect Chinese exports and investment. This approach could safeguard the USMCA’s double-digit growth in cross-border trade since 2020 and bolster the 17 million North American jobs that rely on intra-regional exports. However, it also risks missing the opportunity to align the agreement with a rapidly evolving global economy and losing more markets to China.

The era of the 'three amigos'—a term used to describe the close cooperation between the leaders of Mexico, the U.S., and Canada—seems to be over. Biden and Trump have both been on the same page regarding trade, and Canada's focus has shifted towards trade diversification. Mexico, under Sheinbaum, is likely to continue to 'look south,' strengthening ties with Latin American neighbors.

Sheinbaum steps into presidency with Mexico at a crossroads. Her leadership will not only test the durability of AMLO's legacy but could also redefine Mexico's leverage with the United States and its . Place on the global stage. With the U.S. elections on the horizon and China's growing influence, her tenure could either bolster Mexico's autonomy or deepen its dependencies. Whether she can navigate these turbulent waters will determine if her presidency is remembered as a historic milestone or a missed opportunity.