No tears for Nasrallah

While the U.S isn't mad at the outcome of Israel's latest strike, they're terrified of the fallout and powerless to stop it

The relationship between the United States and Israel has long been a delicate balancing act, often strained but historically manageable. However, as the Middle East teeters on the brink of a regional inferno, the limits of U.S. influence over its closest ally are becoming glaringly obvious. What was once a partnership defined by coordination now feels like a one-sided affair, with Washington relegated to the role of observer as Israel seems intent on charting its own course and drawing its biggest ally into a geopolitical quagmire.

Let’s start with the big news: Israel’s recent airstrike that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and an Iranian general in Lebanon. While no one is shedding a tear over Nasrallah’s demise—he was, after all, responsible for killing hundreds of Americans and Israelis over his decades-long reign—the timing and method have left the U.S. with more headaches than celebrations. The Biden administration barely got a two-minute heads-up about the strike, much less a formal consultation. This wasn’t just a breach of diplomatic etiquette; it was a cold shoulder. And now, with tensions escalating and the possibility of an all-out war involving Iran and Hezbollah becoming more likely by the hour, the U.S. is scrambling to manage a crisis that Israel started without their blessing.

In a statement on Saturday, President Joe Biden condemned Hezbollah and its leader Nasrallah, noting their responsibility for "killing hundreds of Americans over a four-decade reign of terror." Biden emphasized that "Nasrallah's death in an Israeli airstrike delivers a long-overdue measure of justice for his countless victims, including thousands of Americans, Israelis, and Lebanese civilians."

President Biden, often viewed as a stabilizing figure in U.S.-Israel relations but never a heavyweight in terms of leverage, now finds himself in a situation where even his quiet influence feels irrelevant. Israel’s decision to go rogue with this airstrike underscores a painful reality: Netanyahu views Biden as a leader nearing the end of his political road, a lame-duck president with little muscle left to flex. Netanyahu knows that Biden, already navigating a rocky domestic political landscape, lacks the clout to rein in Israel’s increasingly aggressive military actions.

The American response? A lukewarm call for de-escalation and a ceasefire—moves that feel more obligatory than effective. Biden’s team insists they were blindsided by Israel's actions, and while they aren’t exactly upset about the elimination of Nasrallah, they are, to put it mildly, deeply worried about what happens next. The U.S. isn’t mad at the outcome; they’re terrified of the fallout.

Israel’s aggressive strategy of targeting high-profile figures like Nasrallah may yield immediate tactical wins, but the long-term ramifications are much murkier. Sure, taking out a key terrorist leader temporarily weakens Hezbollah and complicates its operations, but the larger question remains: what’s the plan here? For the Biden administration, there’s no ceasefire on the horizon, no credible talk of a Palestinian state, and certainly no exit strategy. Instead, the U.S. finds itself holding the bag in a situation that could spiral out of control if Hezbollah retaliates—or worse, if Iran decides it’s time to escalate.

Domestically, the situation is no better. Vice President Kamala Harris is caught in her own political battle, a no-holds-barred dogfight with Donald Trump as the 2024 election looms. Trump, unsurprisingly, is eager to pounce on any foreign policy misstep that can be framed as Biden’s failure. And it’s no secret that in some circles of Israeli politics, Trump is viewed as the preferable U.S. ally—the president who didn’t ask questions and gave Israel carte blanche.

For Harris, this situation is a political minefield. She can’t afford to look weak on Israel without alienating critical voter segments, but at the same time, appearing too cozy with Netanyahu—who seems determined to snub the U.S.—risks alienating the progressive base, which is already skeptical of America’s support for Israel. Harris may not have created this foreign policy quagmire, but she’s the one who will have to navigate it during the campaign.

Meanwhile, Trump waits on the sidelines, letting the Biden-Harris team take the blame for whatever disastrous outcomes this crisis spawns. If Israel’s actions lead to a broader regional conflict, you can bet Trump will use it as proof that Biden’s weak diplomacy has endangered the U.S.

Israel’s recent airstrike isn’t just an isolated incident—it’s part of a much larger and potentially more devastating strategy. The Israeli military is poised for a full-scale ground invasion of Lebanon, which would not only destabilize the region but could drag the entire Middle East into a broader conflict. The West Bank is already a ticking time bomb, and the U.S. knows that if this conflict spills into a wider confrontation with Hezbollah—or worse, Iran—the consequences will be “devastating for both Lebanon and Israel,” as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made clear to CNN on Sunday.

The Biden administration is actually divided over whether military pressure can effectively de-escalate the conflict. Some officials see Israel's escalation against Hezbollah as a reckless move that could lead to further violence, while others believe it might weaken Hezbollah and force them to back down.

The debate, however is moot, because let’s be honest: the U.S. has no real power to stop Israel. Diplomatic efforts from Washington are being brushed off, and military restraint isn’t even on the table. If Israel proceeds with a ground invasion, the U.S. can expect two things: a flood of displaced civilians and a diplomatic mess that will dwarf any of its previous Middle Eastern entanglements. And while American officials scramble to contain the situation, they’ll have to admit that they were powerless to prevent it.

And then there’s Iran, the giant shadow looming over everything. Israeli officials have privately asked the U.S. to take steps to deter Iran from retaliating, but let’s be real: Tehran has been playing the long game for years, arming Hezbollah and waiting for its moment. Nasrallah’s assassination might just push them over the edge. The real question isn’t if Iran will respond, but how and when.

Here’s where things get even more complicated. A full-scale Israeli-Iranian conflict could easily draw in U.S. forces and destabilize key regional players like Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Biden has already ordered an increase in U.S. military forces in the Middle East, but anyone who’s watched U.S. military involvement in the region over the past few decades knows that boots on the ground don’t solve much—they just prolong the inevitable.

What’s most troubling is the sheer lack of any viable endgame. There’s no clear path to a ceasefire, no discussion of a Palestinian state, and no diplomatic solution that can halt the escalation. The West Bank is on the verge of exploding, and the U.S. is stuck in a powerless position, hoping against hope that Israel will exercise restraint—though "restraint" is clearly not on the agenda.

What we’re witnessing is the crumbling of the long-standing diplomatic order in the Middle East. Israel’s willingness to go it alone, without consulting its closest ally, could set off a conflict that leaves the U.S. with little more than regret. As the saying goes, when you play with fire, you’re bound to get burned. Israel seems more than willing to light the match, and America is left holding the gasoline.

So where does that leave us? With no good options, no control over the situation, and the creeping realization that this is only the beginning of a much larger, bloodier chapter in the never-ending saga of Middle Eastern conflict.