How Taiwan (and the US) can fend off China
How Taiwan (and the US) can fend off China
Recent developments underscore the ever-pressing need for a nuanced and multifaceted strategy toward Taiwan—one that pairs economic, political, and diplomatic efforts with military deterrence.
Cosmopolitans!
You may recall the piece below this post from January, written in the wake of Taiwan's election of Lai Ching-te. Despite China's critical stance toward him, Lai has committed to maintaining the same approach to cross-Strait relations as Taiwan’s outgoing president, Tsai Ing-wen. Tsai's steady, pragmatic policies have been credited with garnering increased global support for maintaining peace and stability across the Strait.
This piece seems particularly relevant, and worth, re-upping in advance Lai’s presidential inauguration next Monday, with an update on recent developments that underscore the ever-pressing need for a nuanced and multifaceted strategy—one that harmonizes economic, political, and diplomatic efforts with military deterrence. As I previously argued, Taiwan must position itself as the geopolitical equivalent of a porcupine, designed to make any Chinese aggression a painful endeavor rather than a triumphant conquest.
As Taiwan prepares the stage for Lai’s inauguration, it’s not merely transitioning leadership; it's broadcasting a resolute signal across the strait—one that unmistakably has Beijing seeing red. The months since Lai’s election have witnessed a dramatic escalation in China’s aggressive posturing.
In the days leading up to the inauguration, China's idea of party etiquette appears to involve a blatant disregard for conventional boundaries—quite literally. With 26 military aircraft and five naval vessels making their presence felt, these aren’t just distant observers; they are intruders crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait.
This significant increase in military presence, including the deployment of naval vessels near Taiwan’s strategic northern port city of Keelung, signals a deliberate strategy by Beijing to test Taiwan's defenses and its allies' resolve. The operation isn't just another routine drill; it involves night-time combat patrols and utilizes landing ships and minesweepers, marking a clear shift towards a more assertive and potentially confrontational military posture by China.
This grandstanding by Beijing serves as a clear message: the party may be Taiwanese, but the gate-crashers are decidedly Chinese, and they want the main table.
China’s strategy extends beyond military displays. Recent developments juxtapose coercive tactics with economic incentives aimed at influencing Taiwan’s domestic politics. An American Enterprise Institute report on China's potential non-military strategies against Taiwan aims at isolating Taiwan and forcing a political settlement favorable to China. The report, entitled From Coercion to Capitulation: How China Can Take Taiwan Without a War warns that failing to address these areas could lead to Taiwan's capitulation and significantly alter the regional balance.
On the diplomatic front, Beijing has intensified its diplomatic efforts to isolate Taiwan. Shortly after Lai’s election, Nauru, a small Pacific Island nation, severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan to establish relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This action is part of a pattern where China uses economic incentives and political engagement to sway countries away from Taiwan, particularly under DPP leadership. For instance, in March 2023, coinciding with President Tsai Ing-wen’s transit through the US, China persuaded Honduras to switch allegiance from Taiwan to the PRC. During President Tsai’s tenure, China has successfully influenced 10 countries to change their diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the PRC, using these tactics to strategically punish and further isolate Taiwan.
Now, China is turning the screws on countries in an effort to isolate Taiwan diplomatically, making attendance for Lai’s big day a litmus test for future relations, exemplified by pressures exerted on South Korea regarding attendance at the inauguration.
Taiwan has seen a bolstering of international support, highlighted by the U.S. Congress establishing a fund to aid countries resisting Chinese pressure over their relations with Taiwan. Additionally, Secretary of State Antony Blinken's endorsement of Taiwan's participation in the World Health Organization aligns with the broader U.S. strategy to support Taiwan’s integration into international frameworks, reinforcing its status as a key player in global health initiatives and illustrating the strategic use of Taiwan's soft power, which in turn bolsters its security.
Lastly, setting up Taiwanese 'cultural and economic offices' globally is a crucial step towards securing Taiwan's place in the international community, subtly navigating the complex dynamics of the one-China policy without triggering a direct confrontation.
Taiwan's response to these pressures has also been multifaceted, rolling out its own porcupine strategy—making itself too prickly to chew. Economically, Taiwan continues to leverage its "Silicon Shield," maintaining its crucial role in the global semiconductor market. This isn’t just about keeping smartphones smart. It’s about weaving such a complex web of global tech dependencies that to pull one string would unravel the whole sweater.
Agreements like a recent science and tech cooperation deal with Australia enhance Taiwan's technological standing but also integrate it further into global supply chains, which are vital for its economic and security strategies. The goal is stitching Taiwan so tightly into the global fabric that to pull one string would unravel the whole sweater.
While economic and diplomatic strategies are vital, the bedrock of Taiwan's security remains its military capabilities, and this highlights the need for Taiwan to diversify its defense strategies. This includes enhancing cyber defenses and developing asymmetric warfare capabilities to deter a range of threats from China. Moreover, joint military exercises with allies and the development of advanced defense technologies should be prioritized to maintain a strategic edge. Strengthening the tech sectors not only enhances Taiwan's global economic integration but also its strategic deterrence capabilities.
Militarily, Taiwan has increased its defense budget and focused on asymmetric warfare capabilities, essential for deterring potential Chinese aggression. The extension of military conscription and continuation of joint military exercises with allies such as the United States reinforce Taiwan’s defense posture, ensuring readiness against a spectrum of potential threats.
The geopolitical significance of Taiwan's position necessitates continued and enhanced international cooperation. The U.S.-led security collaborations in the Indo-Pacific, including trilateral partnerships like AUKUS and security dialogs involving Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, form a crucial counterbalance to Chinese ambitions and assert Taiwan's role in maintaining regional stability.
President Lai’s inauguration is more than just a ceremonial transfer of power—it's a global statement. As he steps up to the podium, his inaugural address will need to reassure not only his citizens but also international allies that Taiwan remains a steadfast participant in the democratic dialogue, undeterred by its belligerent neighbor. The messages he sends to Beijing and the actions that follow once he is in office will set the tone not just for his term but for the broader ballet of international relations in the Asia-Pacific theater.
President Lai’s administration has the opportunity to reinforce Taiwan’s position on the global stage, ensuring that it remains a key player in international affairs, not just a subject of regional contention. But whether Taiwan remains the region’s prickly problem or becomes its stable stalwart is also up to the international community.
The strategies employed must be as dynamic and multifaceted as the challenges Taiwan faces. Supporting Taiwan's resilience—militarily, economically, and diplomatically—ensures not just the island's security but also the broader stability of the Indo-Pacific region.
For story-driven inauguration coverage, I highly recommend checking out The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak. And for all things China and Taiwan, I continue to continue to turn to Sinocism. There is nobody more plugged in on Beijing’s motivations and the government’s thinking on Taiwan than
.
From January 17, 2024 : Taiwan as the porcupine
If geopolitics is akin to a game of chess, Taiwan just moved its queen with the election of Vice President Lai Ching-te as president – a candidate that China vilified during the campaign as a “destroyer of peace.” Cue the ominous music from Beijing warning of war!
traveled to Taiwan for the election and has some great coverage at . And of course, for all things China, I turn to and .But let’s talk about what the U.S. could do now to fend off China in the wake of the Taiwanese election.
For years, the foreign policy blob has focused on military deterrence as the only means of averting a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. But military muscle-flexing alone won’t be enough. What's needed is a more nuanced playbook - a blend of economic, political, diplomatic muscle, and, yes, military deterrence, sprinkled with a dose of reassurance to Beijing.
Let's start with economics. Many describe Taiwan’s strength in microchips as its “silicon shield.” The world needs those chips, and nobody wants their gadgets held hostage by cross-strait skirmishes. Imagine a Silicon Valley and Silicon Shield partnership, ensuring that crucial tech isn’t just a commodity but a strategic asset. The U.S. and its allies could further integrate Taiwan into critical supply chains, ensuring that key technologies aren't just 'Made in Taiwan' but 'Created with Taiwan'. This can involve joint research initiatives, shared manufacturing facilities abroad, or even preferential trade agreements focusing on tech exports. Strengthening Taiwan's economic ties globally not only fortifies its position but also makes any aggression towards it unpalatable.
In the political arena, Taiwan can be positioned not just as a democracy but as a democratic trendsetter. The world loves a David-versus-Goliath tale, especially when David innovates like Steve Jobs on steroids. Think about Taiwan hosting international forums on digital democracy, sharing its successful COVID-19 management strategies, or leading environmental conservation efforts. A great example could be a 'Taiwan Model' for emerging economies, blending technological advancement with democratic values. Such international recognition, even if it's just a diplomatic nod-and-wink, bolsters Taiwan's legitimacy and positions it as more than just a renegade province.
It’s time to get more creative on the diplomatic front. Ryan Hass and Jude Blanchette call for a “a new and broader understanding of deterrence,” including a “clear unwavering signal of U.S. support for Taiwan.” Instead of strongly worded tweets, the U.S. should build a network of alliances and craft a web of partnerships and understandings that turn Taiwan from a solitary pawn into a central piece in that game of geopolitical chess. It's about making sure Taipei isn't just a topic in conversations between Washington and Beijing, but a participant in global dialogues. Why? Because the world listens when you have friends at your party, not just frenemies.
Taiwan's participation in international organizations should also be championed by its allies. For instance, Taiwan could play a more prominent role in global health under the World Health Organization's framework, contributing its expertise as it did during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, setting up 'cultural and economic offices' that function like embassies in countries where formal recognition is tricky, can deepen ties. Think of it as diplomacy by stealth – not a frontal assault on the one-China policy, but a side door into international relations.
There are plenty more innovative approaches to strengthen Taiwan’s global position. For example, encouraging Taiwanese investments in critical sectors in friendly countries can extend its economic influence. Educational exchange programs can also be a soft-power play, creating a global community of Taiwan alumni who understand and appreciate its unique position and culture.
But what about military deterrence? As I have said before, parking aircraft carriers in the neighborhood isn’t going to cut it. Some military experts believe aid should go beyond selling arms to integrated defense planning. Joint military exercises with allies, even co-development of defense technologies can be explored. For instance, joint U.S.-Taiwan cyber defense initiatives could be a model, focusing on threats in the digital realm. Also, offering training and exchange programs for Taiwanese military personnel in advanced warfare tactics can further strengthen its self-defense capabilities.
Taiwan needs to become the geopolitical equivalent of a porcupine – unappetizing for a dragon to swallow. This involves training, real-time intelligence sharing, and maybe a sprinkle of those retired ‘diplomats’ who know a thing or two about tactical strategies. Taiwan needs to be more than just defensible, but a Rubik's cube of a problem for any potential aggressor.
All this flexing and posturing will likely leavde China feeling cornered, and a cornered dragon tends to breathe fire. That's where reassurances come in, as Bonnie Glaser, Jessica Chen Weiss, and Thomas Christensen suggest in the recent issue of Foriegn Affairs. This is perhaps the trickiest part. It's not about kowtowing to Beijing's every whim. It’s about signaling that strengthening Taiwan doesn’t mean cutting China out of the picture, just ensuring the picture isn’t drawn in only red ink.
The aim here is to convey that these measures aren't about encircling China but about maintaining a stable status quo. This might involve back-channel communications to Beijing emphasizing that Taiwan's enhanced international role isn't a prelude to formal independence, something the Biden administration has said the U.S. doesn’t support. Additionally, economic cooperation projects that include China, like tripartite environmental initiatives or shared research in areas of mutual interest like renewable energy, can serve as olive branches, as could continued efforts by Washington to encourage a return to cross-strait dialogue. Lai himself repeatedly said during the campaign that he wanted to keep the status quo with China and offered to talk to Beijing.
The US goal should be to make Taiwan indispensable – weaving it so intricately into the global fabric that any attempt to unravel its position would require unraveling the whole tapestry.
In sum, the US should turn Taiwan from a geopolitical hot potato to a respected member at the table – sure, a table in a room that China built, but a table where others are welcome. A place where Taiwan's voice isn’t just heard in hushed whispers but considered in clear, confident tones. These ideas are not a substitute for military might. But crafting an approach that proactively strengthens Taiwan's global position against China could, just maybe, lessen the need to rush to its defense.
Loose Change
1) Ambassador David Scheffer, a former diplomat and Vice President of the American Society of International Law makes the bold suggestion that if China invades Taiwan, the United States should recognize the Taiwan as a sovereign state while maintaining its long-standing recognition of China and without severing diplomatic relations, calling the recognition card “a powerful diplomatic weapon” for Washington to deploy if Beijing abandons peaceful means to solve the Taiwan issue.
2) When considering a broader approach to deterrence with China, it’s worth wondering if such an approach could have changed Putin’s perceptions with regard to the invasion of Ukraine. In this interview with the Associated Press, Bi-khim Hsiao, Taiwan’s former representative in Washington and Taipei’s Vice-President elect talks about the lessons Taiwan has learned from Ukraine’s war that might help it deter any attack by China.
I love you’re approach here. To me it turns Taiwan into a geopolitical asset, as opposed to a geopolitical problem for the United States and the world as a whole. It makes it an important tool in opposing China, especially economically. And to me that is the real harm of China globally.
China does not have a capitalist economy, at least not in any entrepreneurial sense. Because it doesn’t invent. It steals. Some of it’s largest, most “successful” companies, only got there by stealing technology from the west.
Take Huawei, the technology giant. It came into existence and gained its dominance solely by stealing an entire product line from Cisco Systems. Hardware and software were all exact copies of the Cisco product, down to the documentation, which included the same typos as Cisco’s original documentation. So of course they could sell it for much less. They didn’t have to spend any money on development. And the same is true of much of China's green technology and other products such as military drones.
All of which makes me wonder what will happen if we can get our act together to the point where we can keep them from hacking into our systems and otherwise stealing our products. What will happen to their economy if they run out of stolen ideas.
Also I’m wondering if there’s any chance of bringing back the Trans Pacific Partnership as part of your model. That seemed like a powerful way of isolating China economically.
Elise, first rate analysis. But it's going to take energetic leadership to make it happen. Where do you see that coming from? I seem to remember that the Reagan administration was able to do similar things.
Mr. Saint James hits the nail on the head. Communist China crumbles if the "West" stops business with them.