The Cosmopolitics Weekend Edit

Israel defends charges of genocide in Rafah at ICJ, Blinken rocks the free world in Kyiv, and Putin and Xi tout their anti-Western partnership.

May 18, 2024

To alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, the U.S. military has completed a $320 million floating pier off Gaza’s coast, aiming to deliver up to 500 tons of food daily, eventually ramping up to 2 million meals per day. However, the pier is only a temporary fix, as the primary aid route through the Rafah border crossing remains under Israeli control, severely limiting the flow of supplies. The United Nations and other humanitarian organizations continue to call for an immediate ceasefire and unrestricted access for aid, but the fighting shows no signs of abating. Initial aid deliveries through the new pier began on Friday, but the supplies fall woefully short of meeting the needs of Gaza’s 2.2 million residents. U.S. officials stress that while the maritime route helps, it cannot replace essential land routes. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned that ongoing battles are undermining aid efforts, exacerbating the already dire situation.

Facing international condemnation at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), Israel is defending its military actions in Rafah amidst accusations from South Africa of committing genocide. South Africa has urged the ICJ to order an immediate halt to Israel's military offensive and withdrawal from Gaza, claiming that Israel's actions violate the Genocide Convention. Israeli Justice Ministry official Gilad Noam has rejected these accusations, arguing that they misrepresent the facts and exploit the Genocide Convention. The ICJ's decision on South Africa’s request for emergency measures is eagerly awaited, adding pressure on Israel to reconsider its strategy.

Domestically, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under fire from his own defense minister, Yoav Gallant, who has criticized Netanyahu for lacking a clear plan for post-war Gaza. Gallant advocates for a Palestinian security force backed by international partners to take control instead of Israel, aligning more closely with U.S. policy, which emphasizes the need for sustainable governance solutions to prevent Hamas from regaining power.

China is stepping into the vacuum left by international indecision, hosting a second round of talks next month between Hamas and Fatah to foster Palestinian unity. This move underscores China's growing influence in Middle Eastern geopolitics and highlights the urgency of addressing the Gaza crisis. By mediating between Palestinian factions, China aims to present a united Palestinian front capable of negotiating effectively and maintaining stability in the region.

Meanwhile, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is scheduled to travel on Saturday to Saudi Arabia for talks with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and will visit Israel on Sunday to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Biden administration and Saudi Arabia are finalizing an agreement for U.S. security guarantees and civilian nuclear assistance, even as an Israel-Saudi normalization deal remains elusive. Sullivan's talks with Israeli officials will address concerns about the potential humanitarian impact of a broad offensive in Rafah and recent efforts to secure the release of hostages held by Hamas.

Is Israel trying to split Gaza? The Washington Post reports Israeli forces are reinforcing a strategic corridor that divides Gaza, constructing bases, occupying civilian buildings, and demolishing homes, based on satellite images and other evidence. Analysts and Israeli experts see this as part of a larger effort to reshape Gaza and strengthen Israel's military presence. This four-mile-long corridor, known as the Netzarim Corridor, runs from east to west, south of Gaza City, extending from the Israeli border to the Mediterranean.

Despite Hamas demanding Israel's withdrawal in ceasefire talks, Israeli forces have been fortifying their position over the past two months. Although Israel claims it does not want to govern Gaza after the war, the establishment of roads, outposts, and buffer zones suggests a growing military role. The objective seems to be granting the Israeli military greater control over Gaza. Amir Avivi, a former deputy commander in the Israel Defense Forces, emphasized the need for complete freedom of operation for Israeli forces throughout Gaza. Analysts believe that this corridor's development is a significant part of Israel's long-term strategy to reshape the region's geography and maintain a military foothold.

Lily Greenberg Call, a special assistant to the chief of staff at the Interior Department, became the first Jewish political appointee to resign in protest against U.S. support for Israel’s war in Gaza. Call, marking her as the fifth mid- or senior-level administration staffer to do so publicly, accused President Joe Biden of using Jews to justify U.S. policies in the conflict. Call criticized Biden for making Jews "the face of the American war machine," citing his comments at recent events as deeply troubling.

Did delays in US aid for Ukraine help Russian advances?

Ukraine's war landscape is intensifying as Russia makes significant advances, prompting a reshuffle in Ukraine's defense leadership and raising questions about the timing of U.S. aid. Amidst these developments, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit underscores continued international support, while Russia's internal political dynamics and China's mediation efforts add complexity to the conflict.

In Kyiv, this week Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a symbolic gesture of solidarity by performing Neil Young’s “Keep on Rockin’ in the Free World” at a local bar, reflecting the U.S. commitment to Ukraine. Before his performance, Blinken reassured the audience of the U.S.’s unwavering support, stating, “The United States is with you. So much of the world is with you. And they’re fighting, not just for a free Ukraine, but for the free world.”

The next day, Blinken faced more sobering realities during a news conference with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. They discussed Russia’s new offensive on Kharkiv and the stretched resources of Ukraine’s military. Kuleba highlighted the harmful impact of delays in foreign military aid, particularly due to a major holdup by Republicans in Congress. “When a Ukrainian infantryman or artilleryman has everything that he or she needs, we are winning,” Kuleba said. “Every time there are delays in supplies and insufficient supplies, we are not winning. The law of the war is cruel but very clear.” Blinken announced plans to seize Russian assets in the U.S. to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction, reinforcing the U.S.'s commitment to Ukraine.

The Kremlin announced that President Vladimir Putin replaced Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, an economist with little military experience. Shoigu, defense chief since 2012 and a close ally of Putin, was removed following major Russian military gains. This move signals a potential shift in the Kremlin’s priorities, as Putin aims to bolster Russia’s war economy. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov downplayed the political shuffle, but experts suspect party infighting, especially after one of Shoigu’s staff members was arrested on corruption charges last month. Shoigu had been criticized for being out of touch with the front lines, leading to accusations of bureaucratic incompetence from the late Yevgeny Prigozhin, then-head of Russia’s mercenary Wagner Group, who attempted a coup last June.

Xi and Putin: an (anti-US) partnership for ‘generations’

Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Beijing this week was a clear diplomatic win, securing China's support as his war in Ukraine drags into its third year. Meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping for the second time in less than a year, Putin reinforced their "strategic partnership" with plans to deepen military, economic, and energy cooperation. This trip marked Putin’s first foreign travel since starting his fifth term in May, underscoring the importance of China in Russia’s geopolitical strategy.

The two leaders released a comprehensive 7,000-word joint statement covering topics from space collaboration to nuclear power research. They also addressed strategies to circumvent Western sanctions and expressed unified opposition to the United States, accusing it of disrupting regional security. This alliance, described by Xi as a partnership to be cherished and nurtured, aims to create a "more just and democratic multipolar world order."

The presence of both newly appointed Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov and his predecessor Sergei Shoigu highlighted the central role of Russia’s war in Ukraine in the talks. Since the conflict began, China has provided critical technology and diplomatic backing to Russia, including a 12-point peace plan proposed last year that would allow Moscow to retain its territorial gains in Ukraine.

Throughout their tenures, Xi and Putin have met over 40 times, cultivating a partnership that Xi hailed as beneficial for generations. Putin echoed this sentiment, highlighting their cooperation as a stabilizing factor internationally, despite the disruption caused by his war in Ukraine and the war crimes allegations he faces from the International Criminal Court.

The summit reaffirmed their criticism of the U.S., pledging tighter military coordination against what they labeled Washington’s “destructive and hostile course.” This stance reflects their shared hostility toward U.S. alliances in Europe and the Indo-Pacific.

As Putin relies on Xi's support to sustain his war efforts, China's strategic maneuvering underscores a broader realignment challenging U.S. global leadership. This strengthened partnership between Russia and China signals continued opposition to Western influence and presents significant challenges for Ukraine and its allies.

Related: Autocrats in China and Russia are now making common cause with MAGA Republicans to discredit liberalism and freedom around the world The Atlantic

Biden slaps steep tarrifs on China

As we predicted last week President Joe Biden has imposed new tariffs on a wide range of Chinese imports, citing "unacceptable risks" from Beijing's market tactics. Announced on Tuesday, these tariffs will affect about $18 billion worth of goods, including electric vehicles, semiconductors, steel, aluminum, critical minerals, medical products, and solar panels. Tariffs on electric vehicles will quadruple to over 100%, and duties on solar cells and semiconductors will double. These measures aim to curb China's dominance in key industries and protect U.S. intellectual property.

Biden emphasized the need for U.S. leadership in these sectors, tweeting, “China is determined to dominate these industries. I’m determined to ensure America leads the world in them.” The tariffs, part of a broader strategy initially started by former President Donald Trump, reflect Biden's efforts to appeal to working-class voters in key swing states.

China's response was swift and critical. The Chinese Commerce Ministry warned that the new tariffs would damage bilateral cooperation, urging the U.S. to retract the measures. This escalation in the trade war could lead to retaliatory measures from China, targeting U.S. exports of energy and agricultural products. China might also shift its aircraft purchases from Boeing to Airbus and limit exports of critical minerals and technology.

The interconnected nature of U.S.-China economic ties complicates efforts to decouple. Despite imposing tariffs on various goods, the U.S. remains dependent on Chinese critical minerals and renewable energy technologies. Similarly, China has hinted at restricting advanced solar manufacturing technology exports but has refrained, possibly due to its own firms' global ambitions.

Georgia follows Russia, passes ‘foreign influence’ law

In Georgia, a controversial new law targeting foreign-funded organizations has been passed, sparking significant backlash. The law, modeled after Russia’s restrictive legislation, mandates that organizations receiving more than 20% of their funding from abroad must register as "foreign agents." Critics argue this law will stifle civil society and limit freedoms, prompting protests and international condemnation.

The proposed policy sparked weeks of violent mass protests in Tbilisi as well as clashes on the parliament floor. On Tuesday, riot police descended on demonstrators outside of the nation’s parliament building. Almost all of the detained people have reportedly said they were subjected to degrading treatment from security forces.

Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili, who is an independent, has vowed to veto the legislation, but Georgian Dream’s majority in government means her motion will likely be overturned. The European Union and United States have warned that the law will cause democratic backsliding in Georgia as Tbilisi seeks EU membership.

Assassination attempt on Slovakia prime minsiter highlights country’s polarization

Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico was shot several times on Wednesday in an apparent assassination attempt. Authorities apprehended the suspected gunman, a 71-year-old man described as a "lone wolf" who cited dissatisfaction with Fico's policies as his motivation.

Fico, a three-time premier and leader of the leftist Smer party, is a polarizing figure in Slovakian and European politics. Known for his populist policies, anti-Western rhetoric, and ties to pro-Russian sentiments, Fico has frequently courted controversy. His administration recently halted military aid to Ukraine and has been accused of stifling free speech and punishing political dissidents.

The assassination attempt has prompted widespread condemnation from international leaders and has highlighted Slovakia’s increasingly polarized political climate. The incident has raised concerns about the state of Slovak democracy and the impact of extreme political rhetoric on public safety.

State Dept warns of global threats to LGBTQ+ Community

The State Department issued an unusual worldwide caution this week to Americans abroad, citing the “increased potential for foreign terrorist organization-inspired violence against LGBTQI+ persons and events.” The State Department urged citizens to exercise increased caution.

Global birth rates in steep decline

The Wall Street Journal reports the world is on the brink of a "population winter," with birth rates plummeting to unprecedented lows. This trend is raising alarms about the future of economies and the stability of superpowers like the United States, China, and Russia.

South Korea is at the forefront of this demographic shift, with the world's lowest birth rate. This decline has severe implications for the global economy and workforce, as shrinking populations lead to reduced economic growth, underfunded pensions, and potential national security threats. As fewer children are born, countries worry about maintaining their global influence and economic vitality. Governments worldwide are scrambling to address the issue.

As birth rates continue to decline, the global economy faces a potential "lost decade" of growth. The demographic shift could lead to closed schools, stagnant property values, and struggling rural hospitals. Addressing these challenges requires urgent action and innovative solutions to ensure economic stability and societal well-being in the face of a rapidly changing population landscape.

And the (Eurovision) winner is:

Swiss singer Nemo garnered widespread awe for their 2024 Eurovision performance, in which they sang an opera-inspired EDM song titled “The Code” while balancing on a metal disc. However, after winning the song contest, Nemo promptly broke their award and cut their thumb.

Lighter weekend fare

📺 Watch In Netflix Bodyguard, David Budd is a Britishwar veteran struggling with PTSD and working as a Principal Protection Officer at Protection Command. His marriage is in shambles, and he battles a temper and a deep mistrust of politicians. When assigned to protect MP Julia Montague whose political views he opposes. Fiercely dedicated to his role, David finds himself in the midst of a bombing and potential terrorist threat. This is a short six-episode series, perfect for fans of "The Diplomat," who will appreciate its intense political intrigue.

🎙️ Listen Bloomberg’s Podcast Big Take Asia has a two-part series on Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Host K. Oanh Ha, Bloomberg’s Sudhi Ranjan Sen, and author Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay trace how Modi and his government have transformed India into one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. Modi is arguably the world’s most popular politician. With nearly 1 billion Indians eligible to vote in a six-week election that concludes on June 4, Modi and his party are expected to win a majority for the third time in a row and extend their decade in power. However, concerns over human rights and religious and press freedoms remain, with many political leaders, CEOs, and bankers in the West appearing willing to overlook these issues.

📚 Read: Knife: Meditations After an Attempted Murder by Salman Rushdie On the morning of August 12, 2022, author Salman Rushdie was onstage at the Chautauqua Institution, ready to speak about the importance of protecting writers. Suddenly, a man dressed in black, wearing a mask, charged toward him with a knife. For the first time, Rushdie vividly recounts the traumatic events of that day and its aftermath, detailing his physical recovery and the healing process supported by his wife, Eliza, his family, his dedicated team of doctors and therapists, and his global community of readers.With "Knife," Salman Rushdie transforms a murderous attack into a poignant love story. Rushdie offers a searing account of enduring—and surviving—an assassination attempt thirty years after a fatwa was issued against him.

📚 Read: The Coming North Korea Crisis: As the United States approaches November's elections, there is a significant risk of renewed provocations from North Korea, warns Sue Mi Terry, Senior Fellow for Korea Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, writes in Foreign Affairs. Terry highlights Pyongyang's history of acting out during U.S. election cycles, noting that at a minimum, we can expect nonlethal provocations such as cyberattacks targeting government, defense, telecommunications, and financial institutions. However, the situation could escalate further, she warns, with Pyongyang moving beyond saber-rattling to attack South Korea.

If you have any suggestions for books, films and shows or podcasts, please send them my way!

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