The Cosmopolitics weekend edit

US and Israel face off over Rafah, strikes paralyze Milei's Argentina and the Taliban trains a new generation of jihadists. Plus some great weekend picks

May 11, 2024

The showdown between the U.S. and Israel over the invasion of Rafah, Gaza, is coming to a head. A State Department report, while tiptoeing around definitive conclusions, suggests that Israel's use of U.S.-supplied weapons might have skirted the edges of international law. However, the U.S. State Department couldn't pin down enough evidence to call it a violation outright.

The report paints a picture of a military juggernaut, suggesting Israel knows how to minimize civilian casualties but perhaps chooses not to use its full capabilities in this regard. The U.S. concern seems to be less about concrete evidence and more about a general lack of confidence in Israel's commitment to safeguarding civilians and facilitating humanitarian aid. This skepticism has led to President Biden’s decision to halt weapons deliveries specifically intended for an operation in Rafah, signaling a clear worry that Israel's actions could further aggravate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

The U.S. is playing a balancing act, not fully cutting off military aid or publishing a report that would box it in legally, but using its leverage to nudge Israel towards more restraint by pausing weapons shipments just enough to send a message. Biden is acknowledging the tough spot Israel is in but also doesn't want to give it carte blanche to act without regard for the rules of war.

Amidst this backdrop, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has come out with a sort of defiant resolve—not just against Hamas but also against Biden’s calls for moderation. Saying Israel is ready to go it alone if necessary, digging in with their "fingernails" if that’s what it takes to continue their military objectives, he is trying to show Israelis can handle their security needs on their own terms.

RELATED: UN gives Palestinians new perks, but stops short of full membership The United Nations General Assembly recently voted overwhelmingly to grant Palestine new "rights and privileges" and urged the Security Council to reconsider Palestine’s bid to become the 194th member of the UN. This resolution, passed by a vote of 143 to 9 with 25 abstentions, signals strong global support for Palestine amid ongoing tensions and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

The resolution enhances Palestine's participation in UN assemblies and conferences but notably stops short of granting full UN membership or voting rights. It's a nuanced endorsement of Palestine's statehood ambitions, despite facing opposition from countries like the United States and Israel, who argue that Palestinian statehood should come through direct negotiations with Israel. And let’s face it—the actualization of a sovereign state remains contingent on a peace deal that addresses critical issues like territory, security, and the status of Jerusalem.

Significantly, the resolution reflects the complex geopolitical landscape. Russia and China, concerned about setting a precedent that might affect their regional interests—specifically relating to entities like Kosovo and Taiwan—voiced apprehensions. These concerns led to adjustments in the resolution's language to ensure it was clear that the enhancement of Palestine’s status was an exceptional case, not a standard for future considerations.

This decision has reignited discussions about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at the international level, highlighting the global concern over the high civilian death toll and the humanitarian situation in Gaza. The debate at the UN showcases the deep divisions and the complex geopolitical alliances affecting the region, with powerful implications for future peace negotiations and the broader quest for stability and peace in the Middle East.

Russian forces are advancing in Ukraine. Will US military lifeline be enough?

President Putin, during this week’s Victory Day parade, ominously hinted at the specter of a global conflict. His rhetoric about defending against the West’s "arrogant" ambitions and his pledge to avoid a global clash while keeping Russian strategic forces ready painted a stark reminder of the stakes involved in its war against Ukraine.

As Russian forces notch up their advances on the frontlines with some of their most potent strikes in a while, the US announced another $400 million military aid package for Ukraine, packed with everything from Patriot missiles to Bradley fighting vehicles. This arsenal, freshly plucked from U.S. stockpiles, could be the lifeline Ukraine needs as it grapples with the Russian bear. The big question: Can American steel hold off Russian advances?

The EU has concocted its own plan to convert Russia’s frozen assets into a war chest for Ukraine. About 10% of these windfall profits—about 4.4 billion Euros—are earmarked to prop up Ukraine without directly purchasing arms, aiming to placate EU member states like Ireland and Austria, who'd rather not fund the artillery. It’s kind of ironic that Europe is funding its defense against Russia with Russian money, while Putin warns of the very conflict these funds are meant to deter.

But Europe, for its part, isn’t just funneling funds. The EU’s latest sanctions round aims to choke off the flow of Russian LNG through European ports—a move that’s more of a strategic chokehold than a knockout punch. The specter of Russian gas still looms large over Europe, with the EU treading a fine line between cutting off one of Moscow’s financial lifelines and keeping European homes warm.

RELATED: Did Russian intelligence set a honey trap for a US soldier? In a twist that reads more like a Cold War thriller than a news headline, the U.S. Army is piecing together the mysterious circumstances leading to Staff Sgt. Gordon Black's detention in Russia. His journey, which supposedly began as a rendezvous with romance, spiraled into an international incident that's got even Pentagon spokespeople intrigued.

Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh confirmed that the Army is investigating the possibility that Russian intelligence orchestrated this entanglement. Black, based in South Korea and destined for Texas, was diverted to Russia to see a woman he met in South Korea. He was detained in Vladivostok and now faces allegations of theft.

Biden planning major hike on China tariffs

Next week, President Joe Biden is expected to roll out a new collection of tariffs, specifically targeting China's strategic sectors. This fresh round of tariffs will impose levies on several goods, including a major hike on electric vehicles, semiconductors, solar equipment, and even syringes and personal protective gear.

Among the Biden administration’s proposed changes, the tariffs on Chinese EVs will see a significant jump—reportedly from 25% to 100%. It seems like Biden is not just turning up the dial; he's breaking it off and throwing it away. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown has even floated the idea of banning Chinese EVs entirely, citing concerns over risks to Americans' personal data. As if your car is the new spy to worry about.

The new tariffs are a continuation of the trade strategies initiated by former President Donald Trump, who had set an array of tariffs himself. However, Biden's twist on the tariff tale focuses sharply on industries that scream 'strategic competition and national security,' while Trump’s approach is more of a "tariff everything and see what sticks" method. Trump promises tariffs of 60% or higher on all Chinese goods if he gets back into office.

RELATED: New bipartisan bill supports countries getting cold shoulder from China for cozying up to Taiwan. The Taiwan Allies Fund, introduced this week, is a geopolitical friendship bracelet of sorts meant to strengthen bonds with Taiwan and help those who face economic backlash from Beijing for defying its one China policy. It's sparked by cases like Lithuania, which after letting Taiwan open a de facto embassy, found its exports conveniently blocked by China. The message from Beijing was clear: play nice with Taiwan, and we'll make you regret it.

Here’s how it works: the legislation earmarks $120 million over three years to aid countries that maintain official or strong unofficial ties with Taiwan and are under economic duress from China.

The timing of the bill isn’t exactly subtle, coming right before Taiwan's new president, Lai Ching-te, takes office amid fresh tensions in the region. This move by the U.S. is part of a broader trend where supporting Taiwan has turned into a popular hobby in Washington as lawmakers take frequent flyer trips to the island.

Instead of educating girls, Taliban expands madrassas

Afghanistan’s security landscape remains deeply complex and troubled, with terrorist groups still operating within the country, according to a recent assessment by the US' Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction. Increased poverty and crime, including robberies and kidnappings, were cited as significant risks. Additionally, threats from ISIS-K, foreign fighters, and the enforcement of stringent policies by the Taliban, particularly regarding women's rights, compound these challenges.

Al-Qaeda, though diminished, still maintains a presence and operational capability in Afghanistan, exploiting the less stringent control under Taliban governance compared to the previous Afghan government. This situation suggests limited but ongoing operational cooperation between the Taliban and al-Qaeda, despite international pressures.

The Taliban's expansion of the madrassa system, including the establishment of jihadi madrassas across all 34 provinces, marks a significant shift towards integrating extremist teachings and jihad in public education. This transformation is seen as an effort to foster a new generation aligned ideologically with the Taliban’s vision, which may serve as a recruitment pool for future fighters. This development is troubling, not just for Afghanistan but for security in the region and beyond.

Can resistance forces topple Myanmar’s military?

Six months into a major offensive against Myanmar's military rulers, resistance forces, including powerful ethnic militias, have made significant strides.

The resistance involves a significant civilian component deeply opposed to the military's rule, which began with the coup in February 2021. There has been a sharp increase in civilian casualties as the military employs scorched-earth tactics, targeting essential civilian infrastructure like hospitals and schools. The ongoing conflict has displaced millions, creating a severe humanitarian crisis, with the healthcare system in shambles and an acute shortage of food.

Supported by countries like Russia and China, the military junta retains control of central Myanmar, including strategic cities like Naypyidaw and Yangon. However, their grip is weakening under the pressure of continued opposition and loss of territory.

Union strikes against Milei shut down Argentina

In Argentina, trade unions have launched a significant general strike challenging the policies of President Javier Milei, whose governance style and policies have stirred considerable controversy since his election on November 19, 2023. Described by the media as far-right, right-wing libertarian, and ultraconservative, Milei’s economically neoliberal stance includes severe austerity measures that have provoked one of the fiercest reactions from the public and unions alike.

The strike led to a shutdown of public transportation and closures across schools, banks, and businesses, echoing the unions' deep dissatisfaction with Milei's sharp spending cuts and regulatory rollbacks. These actions are part of Milei’s broader agenda to stabilize Argentina’s flailing economy, which includes proposals that have raised eyebrows both domestically and internationally—such as legalizing the sale of human organs and downplaying the crimes of Argentina’s 1976-83 dictatorship.

Critics fear that Milei's drastic measures, reminiscent of proposals to cut ties with key trade partners like Brazil and China and to abolish the central bank, might deepen economic inequalities and enhance social unrest. These proposals, combined with his vivid campaign symbol of a chainsaw to represent deep economic cuts, underscore his ultraliberal economic approach aimed at "exterminating" rampant inflation.

Government spokespeople have branded the strike as politically motivated, an attempt by left-wing opponents to regain influence. However, the widespread support for the strike and the critical voices from various sectors suggest a broad-based resistance to what many see as Milei’s extreme solutions to complex economic issues.

As Milei navigates his presidency amid comparisons to figures like Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro for his populist rhetoric and policies, it remains to be seen how he will balance bold economic reforms with the growing discontent among Argentinians. The challenge will be to implement changes without escalating tensions or deepening Argentina's economic and social crises.

The world’s most densely populated parallels (including Miami!)

A new map by Visual Capitalist illustrating the world's most densely populated latitudes highlights a pressing global issue. Currently, these latitudes house approximately 279 million people, traversing large countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, China, the United States, and Mexico. This equatorial region is not only densely populated but also characterized by a warmer climate, posing significant challenges.

This could necessitate massive migrations, relocating populations from regions that become uninhabitable due to heat to those that become more temperate. This shift would reflect a dramatic reordering of population centers in response to the evolving climate.

What’s in a (Eurovision) Song?

The Eurovision Song Contest, established in 1956, has evolved from a post-World War II healing initiative into a significant cultural event showcasing Europe's diverse musical talent. This contest is noted for its eclectic performances and is seen as a platform for fostering unity through music.

In recent years, however, the contest has also faced controversies that intertwine politics and performance. The latest issue involves Israeli singer Eden Golan, whose participation in the 2024 contest in Malmö, Sweden, has stirred significant debate and protest. Golan's song, originally titled "October Rain," which referenced the trauma of a Hamas attack on October 7, had to be altered to conform to Eurovision's non-political policy. Despite this, her participation has been contentious due to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, highlighting the difficulties Eurovision faces in maintaining its non-political stance amid global political tensions. This year's contest has been marked by protests both for and against Israel's participation, reflecting broader geopolitical conflicts and impacting the atmosphere of the event.

PIC OF THE WEEK: A rare catch

English fisherman Chris Puckey recently made a remarkable discovery off the coast of Polperro in Cornwall—a strikingly rare electric blue lobster. Such lobsters are an extraordinary find, occurring about once in every two million, according to the New England Aquarium. Puckey and fishmonger Jacqueline Spencer found this particular lobster, due to its unusual color caused by a genetic mutation that suppresses normal pigment mixtures, was too special to be sold for food. Instead, they sent him to an aquarium to ensure its survival and protection from predators.

LIGHTER WEEKEND FARE

📺 Watch The Two Escobars is an episode from ESPN's 30 for 30 documentary series on Netflix that explores the intertwined lives of Andrés Escobar, a celebrated Colombian soccer player, and Pablo Escobar, the infamous drug lord. This story delves into how their destinies reflected the entanglement of sports and crime in Colombia, impacting the nation's psyche amidst political and social turmoil. The show reveals how Pablo Escobar’s ascent funneled drug money into soccer, altering the sport’s dynamics and tying its fate to the criminal underworld. This connection led to catastrophic outcomes, particularly highlighted by the murder of Andrés Escobar following his accidental own goal in the 1994 World Cup, which led to Colombia's elimination.

🎙️ Listen: John Legend is set to host a new IHeart podcast called Afghan Star, premiering next week on iHeart. This audio documentary offers a deep dive into Afghanistan’s cultural revolution as seen through the country's first musical talent show. The series explores the significant challenges faced by the production team, who bravely worked to showcase Afghan culture amidst adversity. “Afghan Star” has been a platform for groundbreaking moments—women singing openly without hijabs, the emergence of the nation’s first rapper, and people from warring ethnic groups coming together in unity on stage. You can listen to the trailer HERE.

The podcast's producer, Kaleidoscope, is collaborating with a graphic designer to create unique graphic art for each episode. These prints will be available for purchase, and the proceeds will be donated to The Noor Initiative, a non-profit dedicated to educating Afghan girls. I serve on the group’s board of directors.

📚 Read: The End of Ambition: America's Past, Present, and Future in the Middle East: Steven A. Cook, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and personal friend, is a pragmatic, yet thoughtful analyst of U.S. policy towards the Middle East. His latest book charts three distinct eras of U.S. involvement in the region—an era of success, a period of failure, and the current state of uncertainty. Cook emphasizes the need for a revised approach that avoids past overreach while still actively engaging to protect core U.S. interests in a turbulent region.

If you have any suggestions for books, films and shows or podcasts, please send them my way!

Thanks for reading. As always, please send me your thoughts, comments and questions.