The Middle East's Tea Party Moment

The region is preparing for a post-American order in the Middle East, one where Washington's reliability is questionable and Israel's ambitions are unchecked

The carefully measured diplomatic performance in the Oval Office by Jordan's King Abdullah this week, revealed more than just another round of Middle East negotiations. As he navigated Trump's latest regional "vision" with characteristic poise, a deeper transformation was unfolding - one that speaks to the future of the entire region. This wasn't merely about handling an awkward diplomatic moment; it was about managing the end of an era.

The immediate drama, and Abdullah’s clear discomfort in having to face it, was clear enough: Trump wants to "clean out" Gaza and transform it into a Mediterranean Riviera, while relocating two million Palestinians to Jordan and Egypt - whether they like it or not. But beneath this surreal vision of solving decades of conflict with what amounts to a forced eviction notice, something far more significant is happening. The Arab states are circling their wagons, not in an Arab Spring-type scramble for regime survival, but in a calculated push toward collective security and regional autonomy.

King Abdullah's diplomatic tap dance in Washington – accepting 2,000 sick Gazan children while firmly rejecting mass displacement of Gaza’s Palestinians– wasn't just about placating Trump. It was about buying time for something bigger: an emerging Arab consensus that recognizes the old rules no longer apply.

Call it the Middle East's Tea Party moment: Trump's ham-fisted attempt to strong-arm Jordan into accepting Palestinian refugees has achieved what decades of regional diplomacy couldn't – a unified Arab front that extends beyond the usual performative solidarity. But this time, it's America’s leverage being metaphorically dumped into the harbor, as regional powers reject the notion that aid can buy compliance with policies they see as existential threats.

The signs are everywhere, if you know where to look. The king didn't arrive in Washington alone – he came armed with a series of carefully choreographed calls with Mohammed bin Salman, Mohammed bin Zayed, and the Emir of Qatar. Even Syria is being brought in from the cold, with an emergency Arab summit planned that would have been unthinkable just months ago.

This isn't your grandfather's Arab League mutual defense pact. These leaders recognize they're preparing for a post-American order in the Middle East, one where Washington's reliability is increasingly questionable and Israel's ambitions increasingly unchecked.

The old arrangements - where American aid bought compliance and Arab states quietly accommodated Washington's priorities - were already fraying under Biden, as regional powers began hedging their bets. The conventional wisdom held that Trump's return would bring these states back into the American fold - after all, he had brokered the Abraham Accords and cultivated strong personal ties with Gulf leaders. Instead, his Gaza displacement scheme and Netanyahu's provocations have done the opposite, accelerating the push for strategic independence.

China's Belt and Road Initiative offers infrastructure investment without political strings. Russia, despite being bogged down in Ukraine, still presents itself as a more predictable partner in security matters - a telling commentary on how far American credibility has fallen. Even Iran, despite regional tensions, is seeing warming diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia. These states aren't just opposing their longtime patron; they're actively building alternatives to American primacy.

Jordan, always the careful mediator, is now emerging as an unlikely pillar of resistance. Not through confrontation – that would be diplomatic suicide – but through a sophisticated realignment that turns traditional dependencies into leverage points. When Abdullah talks about an alternative Arab plan for Gaza's reconstruction, he's not just offering a counter-proposal. He's signaling a fundamental shift in how the region sees its relationship with Washington.

The Gulf states, with their deep pockets and expanding strategic ambitions, are no longer content to simply bankroll American security guarantees. They're building their own frameworks for regional security while cultivating relationships with other powers. Saudi Arabia is deepening ties with Turkey, negotiating a $6 billion deal for warships and missiles. Jordan sees economic opportunity in Syria's reconstruction and renewed access to its markets. Even Egypt, traditionally America's most reliable Arab partner, is finding its voice in opposition to Trump's plans while strengthening links with both Moscow and Beijing.

What makes this resistance particularly effective is its sophistication. These leaders have learned from past confrontations with Washington. Instead of outright rejection, they're offering alternatives. Instead of public defiance, they're building quiet coalitions. And crucially, they're using America's own democratic processes against it.

For Jordan, this represents both crisis and opportunity. The kingdom has always walked a tightrope between competing pressures, but now it's writing a new playbook for regional autonomy. Its military and intelligence partnerships, once seen primarily as a source of dependence on Washington, are being reframed as mutual vulnerabilities that cut both ways.

The Saudis' response crystallized this new reality. It took just 45 minutes for Riyadh to issue what's now known as the "dawn statement," rejecting Trump's vision in terms that left no room for diplomatic niceties. When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggested Saudi Arabia could host a Palestinian state on its territory, the kingdom's media unleashed an unprecedented wave of criticism, pointedly referring to him as "a Zionist and son of a Zionist... who inherited extremism in his genes."

This isn't just about Gaza anymore. It's about Arab states recognizing that Pax Americana, as Charles Kupchan - a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations puts it, "is past its expiration date." As Kupchan, author of the forthcoming book "Bringing Order to Anarchy: Governing the World to Come," writes in The Atlantic, "The old order—Pax Americana—is breaking down... The old is dying, the new cannot be born, and a great variety of morbid symptoms has appeared."

The question isn't whether these Arab states can resist Trump's pressure – they already are. The real question is whether Washington will recognize that its moment of uncontested primacy in the Middle East is ending. What we're witnessing isn't just resistance to a particular policy, but the acceleration of a new regional order – one defined not by American preferences, but by local powers finally ready to say no.