The Trump Whisperer

Indian Prime Minister Modi offers a masterclass in Trump management - and a preview of how rising powers are rewriting the rules of engagement with Washington

When Narendra Modi strode into the White House on Thursday, he brought more than just the usual diplomatic niceties. He brought a PhD-level understanding of how to navigate Donald Trump's distinctive blend of transactional diplomacy and personal politics – and crucially, a clear grasp of India's leverage as America's most potent counterweight to China.

Consider the masterclass in Trump management that unfolded: While other world leaders squirm under Trump's tariff threats, Modi calmly reframed the entire relationship. "MAGA plus MIGA equals mega," he declared with the timing of a seasoned performer, transforming Trump's signature slogan into a vehicle for Indian ambition.

The spectacle of their political kinship magnifies this effect, powered by Trump's evident admiration for Modi's strongman style and mass appeal. Even as Modi faces setbacks at home – his BJP party recently lost key state elections – Trump sees in him a kindred spirit who can fill stadiums and command devotion from his base. Their 2019 joint rally in Houston, which drew 50,000 people, clearly left an impression on Trump, who appreciates both spectacle and power. That Modi can summon such crowds in America while maintaining iron grip on power at home (despite recent state-level losses) seems to have earned him a special place in Trump's pantheon of global leaders.

Yet beneath the pageantry and wordplay lies a harder reality: India is the only major Asian economy that consistently trades more with the U.S. than with China, making it an indispensable partner in Trump's economic containment strategy.

This is Modi's special sauce – the ability to give Trump the public wins he craves while quietly protecting India's core interests. When Trump thundered about India's "very unfair and strong" tariffs, Modi responded with a carefully calibrated mix of concrete concessions and strategic promises. The Harley Davidson tariffs? Slashed from 50% to 40%. American energy imports? Promised to make the U.S. "hopefully their number one supplier." It's the diplomatic equivalent of jiu-jitsu, using the opponent's momentum to your advantage while maintaining balance.

The $45.6 billion trade deficit? Modi cleverly pivoted to India's potential as a market for American energy and defense products, dangling the prospect of doubling bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030. It's a masterful deflection that transforms a point of friction into a promise of future prosperity.

Even India's membership in BRICS becomes a tool in Modi's diplomatic arsenal. The ability to sit at both tables – coordinating with China and Russia in BRICS while deepening ties with the U.S. – gives Modi leverage that few other leaders can match. When Trump frets about China, Modi can position India as the reliable democratic alternative. When Trump pushes too hard on trade, Modi can hint at other partners waiting in the wings.

The choreography extends beyond economics. On immigration, where Trump demanded cooperation on deportations, Modi agreed to accept verified Indian deportees – while deftly preserving the H-1B visa program that supplies India's tech sector with crucial American opportunities. On defense, he entertained Trump's F-35 fighter jet proposals while maintaining India's strategic autonomy and its relationship with Russia.

But Modi's virtuoso performance in Trump management hints at something bigger than just India-U.S. relations. It's a preview of how rising powers are rewriting the rules of engagement with Washington. While smaller nations scramble to placate Trump's demands with border troops (Mexico) or anti-crime task forces (Canada), major powers like India are crafting a more sophisticated playbook.

The new approach combines strategic alignment where interests overlap (containing China) with unapologetic independence where they diverge (Russian energy purchases). Even as Trump trumpets the future sale of F-35s to India, Modi maintains defense ties with Moscow. While embracing Trump's "mega partnership" vision of a new trade corridor from India to Israel to Italy and onward to America, India keeps its options open with China's Belt and Road Initiative.

The irony, of course, is that Modi's very success at managing Trump may be hastening the end of unquestioned American primacy in Asia. Each meeting normalizes India's multi-aligned approach: dealing with America but also Russia, partnering with the West but also pursuing independent policies on Ukraine, accepting some American demands while firmly rejecting others.

This isn't just diplomatic theatre – it's a glimpse, as I wrote yesterday, of the emerging global order, where even America's partners feel increasingly empowered to chart their own course. Modi has proven exceptionally skilled at navigating this transition, giving Trump enough wins to maintain the relationship while steadily expanding India's strategic independence. The $190.1 billion in bilateral trade becomes not just a number, but a foundation for a more equal partnership.

What makes Modi's approach particularly remarkable is how it charts a new course for major powers navigating an increasingly unpredictable Washington. It's a blueprint for how to be neither subservient nor confrontational, how to convert America's need for allies against China into leverage for independent policy choices. When Modi says he "learned from President Trump" about putting national interests first, he's really demonstrating how to turn American anxieties about declining influence into opportunities for strategic autonomy.

In the end, Modi's Trump whispering works because it's based on a clear-eyed understanding of both leaders' imperatives. Trump needs wins he can sell to his base and allies in containing China; Modi needs space to pursue India's rise without unnecessary friction. The fact that Modi can achieve the latter while consistently delivering the former explains why this odd-couple partnership continues to defy expectations.

It's a glimpse of how diplomacy works in an age of strongmen and shifting power dynamics – where success means knowing not just how to speak softly, but how to make your indispensability do the talking for you.