Who Replaces Iran’s President Raisi? It’s the Wrong Question

The real issue is about the succession of the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, who holds the real power in Iran

It’s easy to both downplay and overestimate the sudden and shocking death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash. Many are wondering who will step into his shoes when Iran elects a new president and the implications for Iran, the Middle East, and relations with the US. But frankly, that misses the bigger picture. The real issue is about the succession of the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, who holds the real power in Iran.

Raisi’s Role and the Bigger Picture

The rise of Raisi, an ally of Khamenei, was part of a broader strategy to consolidate power among hardliners and ensure the regime's stability. His election in 2021, amid record-low turnout and allegations of rigging, signaled that the ruling apparatus no longer saw elective offices as necessary pressure valves for a discontented populace. This strategy held even during the intense protests following the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022, which saw brutal crackdowns ordered by Raisi. Often called the "Butcher of Tehran," Raisi was known for his harsh crackdowns on dissent and his role in the mass executions of political prisoners in 1988. His death throws a wrench into the hardliners' plans and raises questions about the future leadership of Iran.

Raisi’s absence doesn’t just leave a presidential vacancy; it disrupts a successon plan that was likely in place for the Supreme Leader. Raisi, a hard-line cleric, was seen as a potential successor to Khamenei. His untimely death removes a critical piece from this carefully constructed power structure, creating uncertainty about who will guide the next transition.

The leading candidate to succeed the Supreme Leader is his son, Mojtaba Khamenei. Mojtaba has wielded considerable informal power behind the scenes and built deep relationships with the Revolutionary Guard Corps and other security services. However, his lack of leadership experience, limited religious credentials, and the regime’s anti-hereditary rhetoric cast doubt on his suitability.

Rubber Stamp Assembly

The Assembly of Experts is the official body responsible for selecting the next Supreme Leader. The last time they made a decision was in 1989 when Ali Khamenei was chosen. This time around, things are murkier.

Let’s be real: the Assembly of Experts is often seen as a rubber stamp. Influential figures capable of significant change are few and far between. Khamenei has spent years consolidating his power, weakening potential threats, and ensuring loyalty from key institutions. Former President Hassan Rouhani was sidelined for precisely these reasons.

IRGC: A Real Power Center

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran’s dominant military force, is a key player in this drama of determining the next Supreme Leader. With significant influence in Iranian politics and the economy and a stake in maintaining the status quo, the IRGC is known to back candidates who align with their interests. Raisi’s death opens the field to other hardliners, but it also raises the possibility of increased factionalism within the regime. If Mojtaba or another hardliner takes the top spot, expect the IRGC to have a big say in how things unfold.

Is there any room for moderates in this power play that could see a return of the golden age of US-Iranian relations where President Rouhani and foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif courted the West, negotiated a nuclear deal with the United States that ended decades of sanctions against Iran? Unlikely. The Guardian Council, which vets candidates, is expected to be even stricter this time around, ensuring only the most loyal to the regime get through. This means that any hope for reform or a shift in policy, especially towards the West, is slim.

Social media is abuzz with videos of Iranians both mourning and celebrating Raisi's death. Fireworks, honking horns, and a slew of memes show just how despised he was by many. Raisi’s death could spark new protests and activism, especially given the widespread discontent and deep-seated anger with the regime. But it doesn’t change the underlying dynamics: any such movements are likely to be crushed swiftly by the security forces. The regime has proven time and again that it can weather these storms, often coming out stronger on the other side.

The International Angle

Overall, Raisi’s death injects a new layer of uncertainty into an already tense regional landscape, potentially affecting Iran’s engagement with its proxies and its adversaries, while also posing challenges for its diplomatic endeavors in the Arab world. The recent direct confrontations between Israel and Iran and attacks by Iranian-supported militant groups in the Middle East, which they claim are in retaliation for Israel’s actions in Gaza and against the United States, Israel’s key ally, have heightened fears of a broader regional conflict, even as Iran signals its intent to avoid such an escalation.

Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian was a seasoned diplomat who had cultivated relationships within the Arab world—negotiating a truce with Saudi Arabia and working to mend regional ties. His loss is likely to impact the continuity of these diplomatic efforts, and rebuilding the trust and relationships Amir-Abdollahian had developed will take time.

In the wake of Raisi’s death, there is concern that regional adversaries might seize the opportunity to challenge Iran, potentially increasing the nation's sense of vulnerability and the risk of miscalculation. Shortly before their deaths, the president and foreign minister had sanctioned indirect talks with the United States to prevent the Gaza conflict from expanding into a wider war. The pressing issue now is whether their likely hard-line successors will exercise similar caution, especially given the internal power struggles in Iran and the upcoming U.S. presidential election, which could impact the fragile lines of communication between Washington and Tehran.

This internal political turmoil could shift the regime's focus inward temporarily. But let’s not kid ourselves: the Supreme Leader and the IRGC call all the shots on foreign policy and they’re not going anywhere. The president and cabinet are pretty much just implementers of those decisions. So despite these ‘disruptions,’ the core pillars of Iranian foreign policy, including the “axis of resistance”—an effort to align more closely with China and Russia—and its support for proxy groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and the Palestinian territories, are expected to remain unchanged.

In the end, President Raisi’s death is significant but not for the reasons many might think. The real issue is the future of the Supreme Leader and the balance of power within Iran’s complex political system.