The Cosmopolitics Memorial Day Edit

Israel's growing isolation, Russia flexes in the Baltic, and your weekend delights

Cosmopolitans: Wishing you a great memorial day weekend. As we are enjoying our barbecues and fun in the sun - let’s take a moment to remember all of the membjers of the military who died while serving our country.

I will be writing in greater detail on the sprialing crisis of Israel’s growing isolation and how it complicates its strategic calculations. But let’s start with what happened just this week.

The International Court of Justice (ICJ), an arm of the United Nations, recently ordered Israel to suspend its military campaign in Rafah. This decision, while symbolic given the ICJ's lack of enforcement mechanisms, adds to the growing list of international censures. Just days before, the International Criminal Court (ICC) called for arrest warrants against Israeli leaders, including the Prime Minister and Defense Minister, supported by several of Israel's traditional allies, including France.

Germany, another steadfast ally, has subtly shifted its stance. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, during a visit to Tel Aviv, questioned the high costs of Israel's military objectives and pledged to abide by the ICC’s decisions. Such criticisms, while measured, signify a growing willingness among Israel's allies to openly express discontent with its policies.

Historically, Israel has relied heavily on the unwavering support of the United States. Israel continues to receive substantial U.S. military aid, with Congress recently approving another $15 billion. However, recent actions by the Biden administration reflect a more nuanced approach. President Biden has halted bomb shipments to signal opposition to Israel's strategies and actions in Gaza, some of which he has called "outrageous." This underscores the complex dynamics at play, where verbal criticisms from American leaders coexist with concrete actions favoring Israel.

The West’s defense of Israel following the ICC’s request for arrest warrants reflects broader geopolitical considerations. At least 37 members of the U.S. House of Representatives co-sponsored a bill to sanction ICC prosecutors and staff involved in the case against Israeli leaders. The bill, supported by the Biden administration, underscores the deep-rooted alliance between the U.S. and Israel and the political calculations behind this support. Western leaders, while condemning specific actions, continue to prioritize Israel's strategic importance in the Middle East over unilateral international legal actions.

Within Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu has managed to leverage international criticisms to bolster his domestic support. The ICC’s decision to seek arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his defense minister, along with leaders of Hamas, has only strengthened his position. Many Israelis view the ICC's actions as an unjust equivalence between a democratic state and a terrorist organization, thereby rallying support for Netanyahu's government. This sentiment is echoed by Netanyahu's portrayal of himself as Israel's defender against global bias.

The recent recognition of Palestinian statehood by Spain, Norway, and Ireland, though largely symbolic, underscores a shift in international sentiment and increases the pressure on Israel. It reflects a broader European sentiment towards resolving the longstanding conflict and highlights the importance of addressing Palestinian aspirations for statehood. Israeli responses, including recalling ambassadors and summoning European envoys, underline the growing diplomatic rift.

In the United States, widespread university protests against Israel's actions in Gaza and decisions by countries such as Turkey to suspend trade and others like Belize, Bolivia, and Colombia to sever diplomatic ties further highlight Israel’s growing isolation.

The Unpunished: This week’s New York Times Magazine cover story about the failure of Israeli law enforcement on extreme settlers and ultra right nationalists over the past four decades is a sobering read. NYT correspondent Ronen Bergman, hands down Israel’s best investigative reporter and the author. of Rise and Kill First: The Secret History of Israel's Targeted Assassinations, has been working on this story for years, along with colleagues Mark Mazzetti and Nathan Odenheimer. Ronen says the dark predictions of former and current senior officials in Israel's defense, intelligence and judicial agencies, which seemed a bit gloomy when he started reporting the story, have become today's reality. In a note to friends, he wrote, “If I had not been physically present at some of the events and interviews and had not read the documents myself, and someone else had told me about all these, I would not have believed..”

Iran’s young hardliners could rise with President Raisi’s death

Earlier this week I wrote Who Replaces Iran’s President Raisi? It’s the Wrong Question, about the significance of Iranian President Raisi’s death and how it impacts the larger political transition, as Iran anticipates the eventual succession of the 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Raisi, a loyal ally of Khamenei, was seen as a potential successor to Khamenei and played a key role in sidelining reformist elements within the government. His sudden death creates a vacuum within the hardline faction and adds uncertainty to the succession process.

A new presidential election must be held within 50 days, and this will provide early indications of Khamenei's strategy for maintaining control. Raisi's funeral brought together influential figures from Iran's military and regional allies, signaling ongoing solidarity among hardline factions. The presence of Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, marking the first high-level visit from Egypt in 44 years, hints at potential shifts in diplomatic relations.

Experts believe the next president and the eventual successor to Khamenei will likely come from the younger generation of hardliners, who are more radical and aggressive. Many of them have served in the Revolutionary Guards and favor a continuation of domestic repression and an assertive foreign policy.

How does that affect Iran's nuclear strategy and its approach to international relations? The new generation might push for a quicker path to developing nuclear capabilities and maintaining strong alliances with China and Russia.

Khamenei must now manage a complex political landscape characterized by broad public discontent, economic challenges, which could prompt the regime to loosen some cultural restrictions and forge new international agreements, but nothing expected to meet the broader demands for democracy and social justice voiced by Iranian protesters.

Biden courts Kenyan president as US counters China

Kenyan President William Ruto’s state visit this week marks a strategic effort to pivot Kenya closer to the U.S. The visit, which included a state dinner attended by celebrities and former Presidents Clinton and Obama, is part of a broader strategy to enhance military and economic collaboration, offering Kenya an alternative to Chinese investments.

China has outpaced the U.S. in direct investments in Africa, with extensive infrastructure projects under its Belt and Road Initiative. This includes high-interest loans that have left many African countries, including Kenya, heavily indebted. When President Ruto visited Beijing seven months ago, he received a red-carpet welcome and secured $1 billion in loans from China for infrastructure projects.

In contrast, the U.S. is focusing on sustainable development, debt relief, and enhanced security cooperation. The Biden administration is leveraging Kenya's strategic role in regional security to further strengthen bilateral ties.

The U.S. plans to upgrade Kenya to a major non-NATO ally, making it the first sub-Saharan African country to receive this status. Kenya's commitment to deploy police forces to Haiti, supported by $300 million from the U.S., illustrates the deepening security collaboration between the two nations. This move also showcases Kenya's role in promoting stability beyond its borders, aligning with U.S. interests. Last year, Biden’s only phone call to a sub-Saharan African leader was to Ruto, discussing Nairobi’s leadership in the multinational force for Haiti.

President Ruto is the first African leader in over 15 years to receive a state visit from the U.S. While Biden has not yet visited Africa, a potential visit next year, if re-elected, signifies the U.S.'s increased commitment to the continent and the strategic importance of Africa in geopolitics. The Biden administration has announced a new strategy aimed at transforming U.S.-Africa relationships into more equitable partnerships, as Washington seeks to regain influence lost to China and Russia.

UK set for election on July 4 in possible test for “special relationship”

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has set a snap election for July 4, surprising many observers given the Conservative Party's significant economic challenges, ethics scandals, and dwindling support. This election presents the party with its biggest challenge in 14 years of governance.

The Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, holds a strong lead in the polls, promising to bring stability and end the “chaos” associated with recent Conservative leadership. Starmer's platform focuses on economic stability, improved border security, and better public services, aiming to address voter disillusionment.

The outcome of this election could significantly impact UK-US relations, especially in the context of the upcoming US presidential election. Here is how it could play out, depending on the results of both elections

If Conservatives win:

And Trump wins: The existing alignment with the US, particularly on defense and economic policies, is likely to continue. Sunak’s increased defense spending reaffirms the UK’s commitment to NATO, addressing concerns about US involvement under a potential second Trump administration. A Conservative victory would likely maintain a strong pro-NATO stance and continue efforts to support Ukraine against Russian aggression.

or Biden wins: UK-US relations would likely see continuity and further strengthening. A Conservative-led UK under Sunak would align closely with Biden’s administration on issues like NATO and addressing global challenges such as climate change.

If Labour wins:

And Trump wins: This could introduce a new dynamic to UK-US relations. While Labour has traditionally been skeptical of some US policies, recent diplomatic efforts by the shadow government suggest Labour could seek to establish a productive relationship with a possible Trump administration. However, vocal critics within Labour, such as London Mayor Sadiq Khan, might lead to tensions if Trump returns to power.

or Biden wins: UK-US relations would likely see continuity and possibly further strengthening. Starmer's emphasis on rebuilding public services and economic stability aligns with Biden's domestic policy priorities. Both leaders share commitments to tackling climate change and upholding democratic values globally, fostering robust cooperation on international issues.

Russia's (temporary) Baltic flex

Russia’s brief publication of a plan to unilaterally redraw the Baltic Sea maritime boundary with NATO members Finland and Lithuania signifies a bold geopolitical move by President Putn. It is part of his broader strategy to maintain a sphere of influence around Russia’s borders and exert pressure on Western alliances, but was removed following sharp condemnations from Helsinki and Vilnius. The provocative maritime boundary proposal and subsequent withdrawal suggest a calculated move to gauge NATO's response without escalating to direct confrontation.

China drills show unease with Taiwan’s new president

China has conducted mock missile strikes against Taiwan on the second day of military drills, claiming they are testing its ability to "seize power," occupy key areas, and inflict punishment for "separatist acts." These large-scale drills commenced just days after Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, who advocates for Taiwan's sovereignty, took office.

The exercises, involving units from the air force, rocket force, navy, army, and coast guard, were announced suddenly on Thursday and seems like rehearsal of how Beijing plans to surround and potentially invade Taiwan.

Lai's inauguration speech called on China to cease its intimidation tactics, emphasized Taiwan's sovereignty and urged China to respect Taiwan's democratic values and distinct identity. He reaffirmed Taiwan's commitment to peace and stability in the region while firmly rejecting Beijing's claims over the island as part of the one-China principle.

China's heightened military response reflects its deep unease with Lai, who Beijing sees as a direct challenge to its ambitions of reunification and labels a “dangerous separatist.”

Still, analysts saw Lai’s speech as striking a more conciliatory tone than his Democratic Progressive Party. After all, he did say he hoped to have talks with China, which were halted in 2016 when Lai’s predecessor—Tsai Ing-wen, also from the DPP—took office. But given tensions in the Strait, analysts also said. China was likely to respond to the inaugural speech with a show of force no matter what Lai said.

This display was also intended to show Beijing's readiness to take the island, as it has vowed repeatedly. But despite China’s aggressive rhetoric, these drills are smaller in scale than previous ones, with no live fire used and no declared no-fly zones. The actual exercises involved smaller ships and aircraft, not the large vessels necessary for a real invasion.

China's military pressure is part of a broader strategy to normalize such intimidation tactics in the Taiwan Strait. However, many in Taiwan remain undeterred, viewing these actions as predictable moves by China in response to Taiwan's democratic choices. Instead of weakening Taiwan's resolve, Beijing's actions often bolster support for leaders and parties that stand up to Chinese aggression.

Half the world’s population is being denied freedom of expression

A recent report from Article 19 reveals a significant deterioration in global freedom of expression, with more than half the world's population now unable to speak freely. Overall, about 4.2 billion people, or 53% of the global population, live in countries where freedom of expression is in crisis according to the report. And just over a fifth — 23% — lives in a country that is considered open or less restricted, according to the report. That’s up significantly from last year, when the report found 34%of the global population was in crisis

The downturn comes as dozens of countries in 2024 are scheduled to hold elections. Over the past decade, the free expression group has documented a worsening situation in 78 countries.

To make its assessment, the group analyzed 25 indicators, including the freedom of media, religion and academia. It says the current situation is unprecedented, with more people than ever being denied the benefits of open societies, such as voicing opinions, accessing free media, and participating in free elections. The report is particularly concerned about the deterioration in India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, shifting its classification from "restricted" to "crisis." This change reflects increased censorship, attacks on media, and severe restrictions on freedom of expression.

Ethiopia has also been reclassified as being in a "crisis" state, alongside deteriorations in eight other countries. The report highlights how leaders often implement subtle policy changes under the guise of "public safety," "morality," or "national security," which gradually erode freedoms.

While the report paints a bleak picture globally, it notes some positive developments, such as the improvement in Brazil’s classification to "open" following the departure of Jair Bolsonaro from power. However, the global trend remains worrying, with ongoing efforts by authoritarian regimes to tighten control over digital and media spaces, further undermining freedom of expression.

An Austrian man found bones in his wine cellar. They were from 40,000-year-old mammoths.

Credit: OEAW-OEAL/TH. EINWÖGERER

During renovations of his wine cellar in Gobelsburg, Austria, Andreas Pernerstorfer made a remarkable discovery: the giant bones of an extinct mammoth dating back 30,000 to 40,000 years. He promptly reported the find to the Austrian Archaeological Institute, which initiated an excavation. Researchers discovered that other artifacts, such as jewelry and fossils, were found in the neighboring wine cellar 150 years ago. The team uncovered bones from three different mammoths, raising intriguing questions about Stone Age human hunting practices. This marks the first significant discovery of such bones in over a century.

Pope clears way for 'God's influencer' to become a saint

Vatican News

London-born Carlo Acutis died in 2006 at the age of 15 - whose proficiency at spreading the teachings of the Catholic church online led to him being called "God's influencer" - is set to become a saint. He would be the first millennial to be canonized.

LIghter weekend fare

📺 Watch The Completely Made-Up Adventures of Dick Turpin, Apple TV Despite a decline in his popularity over time, Dick Turpin remains a legendary British highwayman, whose exploits have been romanticized in various Robin Hood-style tales. However, the real Turpin was likely not as dashing and charming as these stories suggest. This notion is central to this fictional series chronicling Turpin’s rise to becoming England’s greatest highwayman, all while evading the law and rival criminals. A comedic take on historical events, the series portrays Turpin as a petty thief and ironic hero with grand ambitions. The show is a hilariously absurd, drawing comparisons to Mel Brooks' 1993 film Robin Hood: Men in Tights.

🎙️ Listen In The Protectors, Jason Piccolo, a seasoned veteran and retired special agent, interviews a diverse range of guests, from fellow veterans to authors and entertainers. The show explores the sacrifices made by military personnel and how their experiences have inspired notable literature, films, and other art forms we enjoy today.

📚 Read: Mastering the Art of French Murder: The debut novel of Colleen Cambridge’s An American In Paris Mystery series finds heroine Tabitha Knight visiting her Parisian grandfather. She falls in love with the city and her neighbor, a diplomatic wife named Julia Child, who is seeking to master the art of French cooking. One evening Tabitha and Julia are horrified to be drawn to the scene of a grisly crime – a body in their killed with a knife from the Child’s apartment. This is about as fun and funny as a murder mystery can be – with well-researched history and love of Paris and Julia Child’s cooking.

If you have any suggestions for books, films and shows or podcasts, please send them my way!

Thanks for reading. As always, please send me your thoughts, comments and questions.