Many of you have been following today’s crash of a helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi Sunday. Raisi on the way back from a visit to the mountainous border with Azerbaijan in Iran's northwest.
Rescuers have yet to reach the crash site. The dense fog and extreme cold are hindering the search efforts, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the fate of Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who were both aboard the helicopter.
Iranian state television quoted an official as saying that at least one passenger and one crew member had been in contact with rescuers.An Iranian official told Reuters rescuers were struggling to reach the site of the incident, and the lives of Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian were "at risk following the helicopter crash."
Videos circulating on social media pages, mostly belonging to banned expatriate media channels, have shown people celebrating with fireworks, while reports from the ground indicate several areas of Tehran have seen people beeping their horns. Memes and comedy about the crash are emerging both within Iran and among the diaspora, reflecting a mix of relief and dark humor among those opposed to the current regime.
But the incident comes at a critical time for Iran, which is facing numerous conflicts and internal pressures. Raisi, who became president in 2021, has overseen a period of heightened repression. His sudden potential loss creates a power vacuum that could lead to significant political maneuvering within the regime.
According to Iran's constitution, if the president dies, the first deputy, currently Mohammad Mokhber, assumes the presidency temporarily until new elections are held within fifty days. Mokhber, a loyalist to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, is expected to maintain continuity, but the internal jockeying for power could still disrupt the regime.Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a statement aimed at assuring the Iranian people, saying there would be no disruption to state affairs. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a statement Sunday aimed at assuring (or warning?) the Iranian people, saying there would be no disruption to state affairs.
Raisi was seen as a leading candidate to succeed Khamenei, making his potential incapacitation a blow to the political structure. On the international stage, the loss of Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian could be equally impactful. He played a crucial role in mending ties with Saudi Arabia and managing complex relations with neighboring countries.
The regime is already under strain from recent setbacks, including attacks by Islamic State terrorists and conflicts with Sunni militant groups. Moreover, Iran's regional influence has been challenged by targeted assassinations of its officials in Syria by Israel and the subsequent trade of missile and rocket attacks. The helicopter crash, if it results in the deaths of Raisi and Amir-Abdollahian, could exacerbate perceptions of vulnerability and incompetence within the Iranian leadership.
Despite these challenges, Iran's broader foreign policy is unlikely to change significantly, as all major policy decisions rest with Supreme Leader Khamenei. However, the internal political turmoil could momentarily shift the regime's focus inward, affecting its engagement in ongoing conflicts, including its support for Russia in Ukraine and its adversarial stance toward Israel and the US.
We can use this threat to discuss developments and potential reverberations
With strong United States leadership, a change in leadership could have opportunity. Especially if unrest among the Iranian population occurs. Swift and resolute action to support liberal actors in Iran has the potential for regime change for the better.
The lost opportunity during the Obama administration was a true failure after the public demonstrations back then.
I still think while internal politics will be in flux, there will largely be continuity on strategic direction and foreign policy related to U.S. and the region - because the Supreme Leader and IRGC will continue to dominate.
IRNA, the government’s state news agency, announced the death of President Raisi, sayinf he had been “martyred in the line of service.” The announcement said the foreign minister and everyone else on board the helicopter was killed.
It’s going to be a chaotic few weeks and I will be looking to see how the the U.S., Arab states and Europe react and whether, as David suggests - they use Iran’s tragedy as an opportunity to engage or further weaken the regime.
I’m reaching out to sources and Iran experts and we can use this thread over the next few days. I will also write a fuller post on Tuesday.
I saw some reports of Iranian crowds cheering Raisi's death, but the reports dried up. Did they stop?
I can remember when Iran took our hostages in 1979. We had the chance to influence common Iranians back then because they were somewhat "westernized." But today, after almost two generations that seems much harder. Unless they are fed up with the regime. Let's pray they take the path of peace.
With strong United States leadership, a change in leadership could have opportunity. Especially if unrest among the Iranian population occurs. Swift and resolute action to support liberal actors in Iran has the potential for regime change for the better.
The lost opportunity during the Obama administration was a true failure after the public demonstrations back then.
Not holding my breath on “strong US leadership “
I still think while internal politics will be in flux, there will largely be continuity on strategic direction and foreign policy related to U.S. and the region - because the Supreme Leader and IRGC will continue to dominate.
IRNA, the government’s state news agency, announced the death of President Raisi, sayinf he had been “martyred in the line of service.” The announcement said the foreign minister and everyone else on board the helicopter was killed.
It’s going to be a chaotic few weeks and I will be looking to see how the the U.S., Arab states and Europe react and whether, as David suggests - they use Iran’s tragedy as an opportunity to engage or further weaken the regime.
I’m reaching out to sources and Iran experts and we can use this thread over the next few days. I will also write a fuller post on Tuesday.
I saw some reports of Iranian crowds cheering Raisi's death, but the reports dried up. Did they stop?
I can remember when Iran took our hostages in 1979. We had the chance to influence common Iranians back then because they were somewhat "westernized." But today, after almost two generations that seems much harder. Unless they are fed up with the regime. Let's pray they take the path of peace.