The Cosmopolitics Weekend Edit
The world reacts to Trump's conviction, Ukraine prepares to take aim inside Russia, Hong Kong democracy suffers a major blow and pandamonium returns.
The world is once again buzzing about former U.S. President Donald Trump. This time, it's not about a tweet, a policy change, or a new hairstyle; it's about his conviction on 34 counts in a Manhattan courtroom.
Trump remains eligible to run for president, but diplomats are wondering how these guilty verdicts will impact his support within his political base. While it is uncertain how his followers will react, there are growing concerns about Trump's potential return to power.
His previous tenure was marked by unpredictable behavior and a departure from established political and diplomatic norms, which often left allies and adversaries alike unsettled. Should he win the presidency again in November, many diplomats say they fear that Trump may become even less restrained, potentially ignoring the traditional guardrails that have historically guided U.S. politics and international relations. This unpredictability could lead to significant shifts in global dynamics, affecting everything from trade policies to military alliances.
Foreign governments are wary of how a second Trump administration could disrupt international stability and cooperation. The conviction, therefore, is not just a domestic issue but a matter of global concern, highlighting the interconnectedness of U.S. political developments and their profound impact on the world stage.
Most world reactions were muted, but Trump’s anti-immigrant, right-wing nationalist allies around the world rallied around him. On X, Viktor Orban, Hungary's prime minister and Trump aficionado, labeled Trump a "man of honour." Over in Moscow, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov didn't miss a beat, decrying the verdict as "the elimination of political rivals by all possible means, legal and illegal." It's rich, isn’t it? Nigel Farage, the UK’s very own Brexit cheerleader, expressed outrage over the verdict, predicting that "Trump will now win big."
China’s reaction was predictably understated. Beijing prefers to let the spectacle unfold, hoping it will further tarnish the image of American democracy. In the Global Times, a commentary suggested that the U.S. political system is destroying its own soft power. It's like the pot calling the kettle black, except this kettle is under 24/7 surveillance.
In Latin America, reactions varied from shock to schadenfreude. Colombian daily El Espectador labeled Trump "a criminal headed for the White House," while Mexico’s Reforma dubbed the scandal "Pornogate."
As the BBC noted:
Much of this reporting was neutral, but some have echoed Trump's criticisms of American institutions.On CNN Turk, for example, guests suggested the US judicial system was "rigged” and that “the judge and the jury are biased". One caption on the channel repeated a well-known trope voiced by Trump supporters, asking: “Did the US Deep State block Trump?” On social media, Iranians who support Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the last Shah of Iran, condemned the verdict, saying "globalists and leftist are doing all in their power to hold back Trump from becoming US's president again".
As the world watches the Trump saga continue, it’s clear that international reactions are a mix of support, skepticism, and sheer amusement. Leaders who once feared or admired Trump now find themselves navigating this new chapter of American drama with a mix of old habits and new strategies.
My take: I feel, as Americans, we can take pride that the justice system worked as it was meant to and showed that nobody is above the law. But this is not a “good day” for America. Regardless what you think about Donald Trump, the celebrations taking place – the drink specials in bars, the commentators calling this a “majestic day” for America – are really unsettling. Nobody should be happy that a former, and perhaps future, president was just found guilty of a crime. The world is watching, not just our justice system, but our discourse. To put a fine point on it, take a look at what the pro-government news website Haqqin.az in Azerbaijan wrote:
"The insensitivity of American voters even to the criminal conviction of a presidential candidate suggests that the country has reached the brink - there is nowhere to go further."
BIden lays out new “Israeli” ceasefire plan for Hamas
Saying its “time for this war to end,” President Joe Biden Friday announced a new proposal from Israel aimed at achieving a temporary cease-fire in Gaza. If accepted by Hamas, this plan promises a permanent cessation of hostilities, the release of hostages, and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip. Biden laid out a three-phase agreement:
1. A six-week cease-fire: During this period, women, children, and other vulnerable hostages held by Hamas would be released. In exchange, Israel would free hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Concurrently, Israeli troops would withdraw from populated areas in Gaza, and substantial humanitarian aid would be provided to Gaza.
2. Negotiations for a permanent cease-fire: Israel and Hamas would negotiate to establish a permanent cease-fire and ensure the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. This phase would extend the temporary cease-fire beyond the initial six weeks, provided both parties adhere to the agreement’s terms and continue negotiations in good faith. Biden acknowledged there are a number of details to be worked out to move from phase one to phase two.
3. A major reconstruction plan for Gaza.
This puts pressure on Hamas to accept the deal. But it is clear this is a Biden plan, not an Israeli one. Israel allowed the US to put it forward, but there is a significant difference in how Biden presented it and how Israelis see it.
Biden essentially stated that Hamas has been weakened enough that it can’t pose a serious threat to Israel. But, take a look at this statement issued Friday after Biden’s speech:
“The Government of Israel is united in its desire to return the hostages as soon as possible and is working to achieve this goal. The Prime Minister authorized the negotiating team to present a proposal to that end, which would also enable Israel to continue the war until all its objectives are achieved, including the destruction of Hamas's military and governing capabilities,” the statement said, adding, “the actual proposal put forward by Israel, including the conditional transition from one phase to the next, allows Israel to uphold these principles.”
Under the plan, Israeli troops would essentially have to pull out of Rafah. Earlier this week, the Israeli National Security Adviser said the Rafah mission could last until the end of the year—about seven more months.
I wrote this week in Can Biden be the Israel whisperer? about the feeling that Biden should address the Israeli people directly. Schumer’s “Netanyahu has to go” speech missed the mark, but there is a growing recognition that a message to Israelis about the stark choices for the future might work better. It sounds like this speech was an initial effort to do that.
Biden said that “Israel has now offered” these terms, but in the same remarks “urged the leadership in Israel to stand behind this deal.” “I know there are those in Israel who will not agree with this plan and will call for the war to continue indefinitely… even in the government coalition,” he said. “And they’ve made it clear they want to occupy Gaza. They want to keep fighting for years.”
Israeli sources pointed out that Biden delivered this speech in Israeli prime time—after Shabbat dinner—when non-Orthodox families are watching the evening news. The more extreme members of the cabinet were observing Shabbat and not watching television, and neither they nor Netanyahu could make an official statement until tomorrow night when Shabbat ends, giving Biden a 24-hour advance on the message. Israeli newspapers, such as the Times of Israel published the full text
RELATED: Another U.S. resignation over Gaza: Stacy Gilbert, a U.S. State Department official, resigned in protest of President Joe Biden's Israel policy after a report to Congress falsely claimed Israel was not obstructing humanitarian aid to Gaza. Gilbert, who worked in the Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration, criticized the report for inaccuracies. The report, required by a National Security Memorandum issued by Biden, concluded that Israel did not fully cooperate with efforts to deliver humanitarian aid but did not breach U.S. law regarding arms provision.Gilbert said the last draft saw stated that Israel was blocking humanitarian assistance.
Gilbert's resignation follows those of other officials who also disagreed with the administration's handling of the situation in Gaza. This includes Alexander Smith from USAID, who resigned after his presentation on maternal and child mortality among Palestinians was canceled due to alleged political sensitivities. Smith criticized the inconsistent treatment of humanitarian crises and accused USAID of failing to acknowledge the full humanity of Arabic language spokesman Hala Rharrit. Annelle Sheline of the human rights bureau and Josh Paul, who worked in Political-Military Affairs, also resigned over civilian deaths in Gaza at the hands of US weapons.
Brazil withdraws its ambassador to Israel. This withdrawal follows a series of criticisms from Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who earlier compared Israel’s offensive in Gaza to the Holocaust. Colombia recently severed diplomatic relations with Israel, following similar steps taken by Bolivia and Belize.
Ukraine allowed to use U.S weapons for limited strikes inside Russia
The Biden administration has quietly authorized Ukraine to use U.S.-provided weapons for limited strikes inside Russia, specifically near Kharkiv. This major policy shift allows Ukraine to better defend its second-largest city from Russian attacks. The directive enables Ukraine to use American weapons, such as rockets and launchers, to counter Russian missile and artillery strikes but prohibits attacks on civilian infrastructure or deep inside Russian territory.
The policy adjustment was prompted by worsening conditions for Ukraine, with increased Russian aggression near Kharkiv. It comes after Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, urged the U.S. to lift restrictions to enable more effective defense against Russian forces. Secretary of State Antony Blinken hinted at this policy evolution, suggesting U.S. support for Ukraine would adapt as needed. The shift also aligns with positions taken by U.S. allies like the UK, Germany and France, which support Ukraine's right to defend itself using Western weapons.
The change reflects a strategic response to the battlefield realities, allowing Ukraine to target Russian military sites used for invasions from just across the border. However, the U.S. maintains its stance against using these weapons for long-range strikes deep into Russia, aiming to avoid further escalation with Moscow.
Hong Kong convicts democracy activists in landmark national security case
A Hong Kong court has convicted 14 pro-democracy activists on conspiracy to commit subversion in the territory’s largest case to date under the national security law. Their offense? Organizing an unofficial primary election to strengthen their chances in citywide polls. These convictions mark a significant escalation in Beijing's crackdown on dissent, following months of anti-government protests in 2019. The convicted activists are part of a larger group of 47 pro-democracy figures accused of conspiracy to commit subversion.
The national security law, imposed by Beijing in 2020, has been a powerful tool in suppressing political opposition. It grants the authorities sweeping powers to silence dissent, resulting in the detention of many activists for prolonged periods even before their trials. The charge carries a maximum penalty of life imprisonment. The recent convictions demonstrate how the law has effectively quashed any form of opposition, transforming Hong Kong's political landscape.
The message from the authorities is unambiguous: any form of opposition, even moderate, will be met with severe punishment. This crackdown has led to a significant reduction in political freedoms and has effectively eliminated opposition voices from Hong Kong’s political institutions. Only those approved by Beijing are allowed to participate in elections, further tightening control over the city.
Haiti gets a new Prime Minister
On Tuesday, the Presidential Transition Council of Haiti appointed Garry Conille as the new prime minister, entrusting him with the unenviable task of steering the country through its current crisis until elections for a new president can be held. As we have talked about before, Haiti is grappling with severe political instability and rampant gang violence, particularly in the capital, Port-au-Prince. A U.N.-backed security mission, led by Kenyan police, is set to commence operations soon, aiming to restore order and stability.
Conille has spent 25 years working with the United Nations, other international aid organizations, and even former President Bill Clinton when he was the U.S. envoy to Haiti. His previous tenure as Haiti's prime minister in 2011, though brief, was marked by his efforts to manage the country's recovery following the devastating 2010 earthquake. This disaster claimed the lives of an estimated 316,000 people and left the nation in ruins. Conille's background in public health and his expertise in crisis management are seen as significant assets in addressing Haiti's current challenges.
Despite his impressive credentials, Conille faces considerable obstacles. His recent years spent working abroad may have left his domestic political skills a bit rusty, and he will need to quickly adapt to the volatile situation in Haiti, which includes the absence of a functioning parliament.
It’s raining trash… in South Korea
North Korea revived a Cold War tactic, flying hundreds of balloons full of trash over South Korea in apparent retaliation against South Korean activists for flying anti-Pyongyang propaganda leaflets across the border.
The debris, including manure, cigarette butts, cloth scraps, waste batteries, and even diapers, was one of North Korea’s most bizarre provocations against its rival in years, prompting the South's military to mobilize chemical and explosive response teams to recover objects and debris in different parts of the country.
Kim Yo Jong, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, confirmed the operation, saying it was in retaliation to South Korean activists' leafleting campaigns.
These provocations are seen both to sow discord within South Korea, and as part of a broader strategy to influence the upcoming U.S. presidential election, potentially hoping for a return to diplomacy if Donald Trump is re-elected.
Pandamonium! A new era of panda diplomacy
Washington just wasn’t the same without our beloved pandas! After a six-month hiatus, the Smithsonian’s National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute announced that two-year-old pandas, Bao Li and Qing Bao, will arrive before the end of the year. This joyful news comes after the departure of the previous pandas, Mei Xiang and Tian Tian, in November, which had left panda fans and diplomats worried about the continuation of the panda program amidst rising U.S.-China tensions.
But never fear! Bao Li, a male, and Qing Bao, a female, are both two years old and will continue the legacy of panda diplomacy in Washington. Bao Li has a special connection to the city as he is the grandson of Mei Xiang and Tian Tian, and his mother, Bao Bao, was born at the National Zoo. Their arrival symbolizes a renewal of the long-standing agreement between the Smithsonian and the China Wildlife Conservation Association, which aims to foster the breeding and care of these endangered animals.
Hopefully, the return of the pandas is a promising sign for U.S.-China relations. During a diplomatic summit in San Francisco, Chinese leader Xi Jinping hinted at the pandas' return, calling them "envoys of friendship." Despite the high-level diplomatic gestures, the new agreement was reached independently by the zoos, ensuring that the tradition of panda diplomacy continues. The new pandas will undergo a 30-day quarantine upon their arrival, with a public debut expected early next year. The zoo is preparing a special habitat for them, thanks to a $2.5 million renovation funded by Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein. This includes new pools, climbing structures, hammocks, and an upgraded PandaCam with 40 new cameras.
The zoo is also launching a $25 million fundraising campaign to support the panda program over the next decade. As Washingtonians look forward to welcoming Bao Li and Qing Bao, the excitement is palpable, promising a wave of "pandamonium" in the nation's capital.
Lighter weekend fare
📺 Watch The First Omen (Hulu) is a prequel to “The Omen” franchise. The 1976 horror film The Omen told the story of a couple adopting a son whom they name Damien. After a series of ominous events, it is revealed that Damien is the son of Satan and the Antichrist. Three sequels followed. The First Omen begins in 1971 and follows a woman, Margaret, who goes to Rome to fully commit to the Catholic church, only to find evil lurking in the church.
🎙️ Listen You'll Never Beat Kyle Walker by the BBC is a ride on the team bus. Each week, Kyle Walker, captain of Man City, a leader on the England team and one of football’s best players, along with host Chris Hughes, takes you inside the locker room to find out what it takes to win over and over again. Walker is charming, funny, and reflective about the best and worst moments of his play, his favorite opponents and hardest opponents, his longevity, and more. Self-doubt, bromances, and his childhood are all up for discussion.
📚 Read:: In THE ART OF DIPLOMACY: How American Negotiators Reached Historic Agreements That Changed the World, former diplomat Stuart Eizenstat delves into major episodes of American diplomacy over the past fifty years, with a foreword by Henry Kissinger and a preface by James A. Baker III. A diverse group of prominent figures, including former U.S. President Bill Clinton, former Prime Ministers Tony Blair, Bertie Ahern, and Ehud Olmert, as well as notable diplomats Hillary Clinton and John Bolton all contributed their insights. The book reflects Eizenstat’s disappointment with the politicization of diplomacy, which I share. He dissects several landmark diplomatic negotiations, critiques the frequent failure to follow through on diplomatic agreements, and offers a comprehensive guide for future diplomats, underscoring the importance of reasoning together to achieve lasting solutions.
The new Biden plan sounds as if it's akin to Churchill adopting Halifax and Chamberlain's wanting to make terms with Hitler in 1940. Any kind of peace without the destruction of Hamas will put Israel's future security in peril. Israelis must think in terms of "If not us, who? If not now, when?"
IF TRUMP WINS?
Putin's presidential ambitions were published in 1997 in Russia in a 600+ page book called The Foundation of Geopolitics. These goals (listed in a book called From Democracy to Democrazy, have the potential to significantly transform American politics, but will also globally impact innumerable lives and a multitude of other countries. Unfortunately, the unobservant American public is heedless and unaware of the crucial and overlooked danger that continues to unfold in the United States due to the Putin - Trump connection.
The shadow cast by Putin over the landscape of American democracy and American lives, and his influence and control over Trump grows larger and darker by the moment. The Mueller Report failed, not due to a lack of research or facts, but due to the interference of William Barr. The Mueller Report was created to investigate Trump and his relationship with Russia. William Barr, the AG at the time, prevented the American public to absorb the full impact of the 2-year and $32 million dollar investigation. "March 24, 2019 may go down as one of the most artfully deceptive and effective undertakings in the history of spin control. In this masterpiece of disinformation, Barr completely stole Mueller's thunder, misrepresented it, and presented Trump forces (including the Russians) with a victory they then used to label the entire Trump-Russia scandal as a hoax." (Unger, American Kompromat). It was not a hoax - a man wrongly elected to the Presidency of the United States due to Russian election interference is probably working for the Russians. What does that mean to the American public?
If the Republican incumbent is victorious this year, again with assistance from Russian election interference - the world will rapidly change. (1) Ukraine will fall to Russia, (2) Israel may be attacked by Iran and the Jewish state may be eliminated, and (3) China will invade Taiwan. World War III is predicted. Putin can then invade other countries and restore Russia to their glory days of the USSR. Trump will not involve the U.S. in these conflicts per instructions from Putin. The U.S. military complex will attempt to over-ride Trump, but this process - like all formal legal accusations in the U.S. - may take years. Lives will be lost and world-order will have been turned upside down.
Included in Putin’s world-domination plan is a new Russian-Afghan relationship. The Afghanistan legally-elected government lost control to the Taliban at the speed of light. U.S. military officials have linked the collapse of the Afghan government and its security forces to former President Trump's deal with the Taliban in 2020. (From Democracy to Democrazy). Trump promised a complete withdrawal of U.S. troops to the Taliban and never spoke with the American-backed Afghan President. (Ibid) President Ashraf Ghani fled for his life to the United Arab Emirates. (Wikipedia/President of Afghanistan). Trump even invited Mullah Baradar, a Taliban leader, to join him in Camp David. (Ibid) Trump, of course, lost the 2020 election and Biden was forced to end the war - but on Trump's terms - which benefited Russia.
In 2023-2024, Russia is reaping the benefits of the U.S.-Afghanistan military withdrawal. Russia is now recognizing the legality of the Taliban government and negotiating deals for Afghan lithium and nickel. (The Bell Substack, 5/29/2024)
The American media spotlight, ever enthralled by the sensationalism of the moment, remains fixed on the whirlwind of legal woes orbiting Donald Trump, instead of illuminating the increasingly adverse consequences of a Trump return to the White House.
Elizabeth Graham
http://www.democrazy2020.org